Mafia 2 - I Left My Heart in San Francisco - Day 1

Call me crazy, but I was able to part the larger group into smaller groups, and I am using statistics alone to make observations. Seeing as we don't have much to go off of at this point anyways, I don't see what is wrong with doing it this way.

I am not looking at this as if the ice cream flavor choices are the important part of the experiment. I used it as a tool to separate us into smaller more manageable groups that are dictated by a choice not made by myself (who would be prone to applying a bias) and followed it up with simple statistics to make what are in my mind decent observations. If my observations are wildly incorrect I would actually be a little surprised, but I do expect some degree of error.

derB might just be a genius. the first question is merely a warmup to get more honesty in the second question. i like it

Dragonldy:
To me, your vote is because PhocQ voted you. This screams online reality game vote. Not a vote based on anything purely but if someone votes you, you vote them for revenge.

I don't necessarily feel that PhocQ's vote was bad. The obvious "I have no reason" kind of set off alarms. However, the vote in itself ((especially at early stages)), is not something to have worried about, that warrented a "revenge" vote.

Alright, so deadline is tomorrow.... This is easily the quietest first day I have ever seen. Something is up...

That Tiffani and PhocQ went at it (teehee) so early and then changed gears so quickly to both target Dragonldy might seem scummy, but really as mafia you wouldn't want to attach yourself to each other like that, plus they are not allowed to speak in private during the day, so I think it is unlikely they are mafia working on outing Donna. Or mafia altogether for that matter. Maybe one of them is, but not both, and still not likely in my mind.

Of the non-chocolates, that leaves Pete and Thian. Pete is vocal but non-committal, which fits the mafia bill, and Thian has thrown out some votes, possibly to see what sticks, also like a mafia would. I am watching these two closely.

Onto the chocolate lovers.

I have noticed that Texans love chocolate. Of those Texans, I am most inclined to believe Boyd is innocent, he just seems to be testing the waters of the game, and statistically speaking, is unlikely to be a baddie on his first try. Doesn't mean he is off the hook, he is just a tiny blip on my radar at the moment.

Kyle somehow seems to have made it on my good side. I would vote him before Boyd, but everyone else before Kyle.

Stacie and Mandie I am slightly more suspicious of, but not much, they haven't said much yet, I am hoping they will get on to say something substantial before the round is over. Quiet players make for shady characters...

This also applies to the apparent Cam/Dragonldy pair. Maybe Dragonldy latched on to Cam as a mafia member, hoping she could take him down by association, or maybe she was protecting a fellow mafia member and made the biggest slip of all time, by not really paying attention to how little spotlight Cam had or was given, and now have ratted them both out. Either way, there is no logical reason for Dragonldy to feel Cam out of everyone else is flat out innocent. This plants a red flag on both of them. Perhaps it is Cam that needs a visit from the five-oh tonight.

I have to wonder if maybe I hit WAY too close to home with my breakdown for some folk. Thian and Cam have been somewhat dismissive of my logic, due to the innocence of the nature of the question, but this was planned all along. I have thought this out. Odds are it will look silly at the end, but for me right now, this an effective way to sift us apart and see how people react to being grouped one way or another. Donna flat out ignores all observations that don't have her name in red, with the possibly handy exception of defending Cam here, but I have come to expect this from her.

As it stands now, I am thinking that Cam, Dragonldy, and Thian are our mafia.

I have my fingers crossed I got all three here, along with a helpful tip from Dragonldy, to seal the deal. If this is incorrect, I might have to take a look at Pete, and probe deeper into Texan territory.

I vote to lynch Cam.

*edited, wrong vote.

If anything at all, you give me lots to read and it's all interesting at that hehehe

derB, how am I being non-committal by asking questions and gain info. I haven't voted anyone yet, correct, but that doesn't make me non-committal. I don't vote for someone unless I feel there is a real good reason and I don't have that yet, take it as you will.

However, with that said I do agree with some of your points. Especially about Dragonldy. I have a hard time understanding why she thinks Cam is innocent unless she knows for sure, and on the first day no less, the only way to know for sure is if you are mafia yourself, therefore:

I am voting for Dragonldy

With the deadline tomorrow and no clear idea of where to go next, I feel the best decision to make is to either do no-lynch or Dragonldy.

I still wish certain people would give more detail as to why they are voting how they are voting, cause it doesn't help us out at all if people vote without reason.

I agree Pete, to the fact that I wish more people would explain better why they're voting the way they are. That's mostly the reason I haven't voted yet.
I can tell you, I SINCERELY love chocolate. I don't know if you want to peg us Texans as baddies, but that's just crazy!! I really love chocolate.. brownies, ice cream, cake, hot chocolate, fudge, omg... you name it!!! I am craving it just thinking about it. As a matter of fact, I wanted to make brownies today, but realized I am out of eggs. =( and my neighbors aren't the kind of neighbors you'd ask to borrow something from.

So, with that being said, there are a couple of people I am leaning towards. I hate to have to pick someone on the first day, when we know little about everyone. However, I am for lynching someone to get this game started.

I am leery of the people who vote so quickly. I always feel like they must know something that we don't. I wish I were in the know, so I could feel cool, for ONCE!!! lol

So, I understand that the deadline is tomorrow, but before I cast my vote, I'd like to read more of why other people are voting the way they are!

Not at all Stacie! My "Texans love chocolate" thing was just for laughs.

I have no problem voting Dragonldy in the long run, but I want to see what happens with my vote on Cam.

I havent had much to say. I myself dont have any suspects and i dont like to point fingers unless I have a reason to point them. I've just been taking in all that yall have said.

DEADLINE for Day 1 - Tuesday, March 8th - 23:59 EST

VOTES: (Majority of 6 needed to lynch)
Cam: 2 votes of 6 (Thian, derB)
Kyle: 1 vote of 6 (Sir Boydly)
Dragonldy: 3 votes of 6 (PhocQ, Tiffani, Pete)
PhocQ: 1 vote of 6 (Dragonldy)

Pending votes: 4
Cam, Mandie, Kyle, Stacie

What do you tell a woman with two black eyes?





































Nothing. She has already been told twice.

lol, that is one of my husbands favorite jokes!

Okay, so tonights the deadline... what say ye?

This has been the most mindbogglingly quiet first days ever. Did we peg the mafia scum already?

At this point, it either looks like a Dragonldy lynch or a no lynch. I am willing to vote for her, but I would really like to see some folks speak up before I go through with it.

currently, I believe, one mafia is in the pending votes. Trying to distance themselves. One mafia is avoiding dragonldy vote and one is in the dragonldy vote.


That breaks it up nice and easy for me instead of chocolate. Makes it a bit more serious too.


That leaves a group of

Avoidance of drgonldy vote
Thian, derB, Sir Boydly dragonldy

Dragonldy bandwagon
PhocQ Tiffani Pete

Non comittal.
Cam, Mandie, Kyle, Stacie


Pete:

A type of non comittal doesn't mean you aren't willing to play, it means you are sort of floating your vote. However, when you were called out on not placing a vote. You quickly flung a vote out to avoid being called non comittal. At this point, no one really has anything to go by but actions. So if I were to look critically at the motive behind you putting your vote after being accused. ((To me)) that is what it looked like.


Kyle:

I'd like to see you place a vote actually. You really haven't engaged much. Now I do realize that this could be how you play to get going, and simply stating you like what derB has done with the throw a random question out first to get something more serious coming along. Any reason why you chummed up to derB?

Thian
The difference between floating your vote and trying to actually gather information is just that, I was asking people to actually put more detail into their votes and help the group know what they are thinking so as to understand what people see that I'm not seeing.

There are a lot of times where people state that they are voting for someone because they noticed something they have said or done that I missed, I'm not very good at picking things up like that so if someone posts that they are suspicious of someone I want to know why so that it points things like that out to me.

Also, regarding my vote, my vote had nothing to do with derB's comment, in fact prior to him posting his comment that I was non-committal I was thinking of voting for Dragonldy but I was unable to post then, so when he posted that I answered that along with placing my vote on the only person I feel really warrants a vote at this time. No one else at this time seems suspicious to me. I do think Cam made a weird comment and that is the only other thing I am seeing.

I definitely see what you are saying about me placing my vote when I did but it really had nothing to do with that comment. I know you don't believe me but whatever.

Pete:
It isn't that I am not believing in what you are saying, it is those things like timing and motivation that can certainly look that way. having nothing to go on, as you say, people od have to grasp things, and pick up on things.

DEADLINE for Day 1 - Tuesday, March 8th - 23:59 EST

VOTES: (Majority of 6 needed to lynch)
Cam: 2 votes of 6 (Thian, derB)
Kyle: 1 vote of 6 (Sir Boydly)
Dragonldy: 3 votes of 6 (PhocQ, Tiffani, Pete)
PhocQ: 1 vote of 6 (Dragonldy)

Pending votes: 4
Cam, Mandie, Kyle, Stacie


Less than 5 hours until deadline!

DEADLINE for Day 1 - Tuesday, March 8th - 23:59 EST

VOTES: (Majority of 6 needed to lynch)
Cam: 2 votes of 6 (Thian, derB)
Kyle: 1 vote of 6 (Sir Boydly)
Dragonldy: 4 votes of 6 (PhocQ, Tiffani, Pete, Kyle)
PhocQ: 1 vote of 6 (Dragonldy)

Pending votes: 3
Cam, Mandie, Stacie


Less than 5 hours until deadline!

Thian,
I do understand what you are saying and am not upset by it by any means, looking back on it maybe I should have waited to vote but I didn't, and yeah voting then right after derB made that comment definitely didn't look good for me but to be honest I didn't really give that much thought, I never really think too strongly into what I say each time, just post what I feel

Phoc, Tiffani, Pete and Kyle...

Yall really think Dragonlady is mafia?

Mandie,
the reason I voted for Dragonldy is cause of her comment about Cam being innocent. How would she know this unless she was mafia. There is no other way she could know that for sure. That is why I voted for her, we have so little to go on at this time that I feel that is the strongest case there is at this time. I really hope that we are not wrong but I think it is a shot in the dark no matter what so that feels like the best reason as any

Thanks for your answer dear.

DEADLINE for Day 1 - Tuesday, March 8th - 23:59 EST

VOTES: (Majority of 6 needed to lynch)
Cam: 2 votes of 6 (Thian, derB)
Kyle: 1 vote of 6 (Sir Boydly)
Dragonldy: 3 votes of 6 (PhocQ, Tiffani, Pete)
PhocQ: 1 vote of 6 (Dragonldy)

Pending votes: 4
Cam, Mandie, Stacie, Kyle


Just over 4 hours until deadline!