Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 4

Journal Log Day 4

It has come to the villagers concern after last nights meeting that this was the Elders last chance to make their move. What in the world have these traitors to the Eternal Caverns done? The night was not an easy one for me. I had now gotten into a routine seeking out safe havens for the night instead of documenting the villagers. However, danger did lurk every corner. I could not even imagine which Elder would have gone missing. With little information being passed around the group is getting smaller and smaller. Most of the villagers have left, only a few brave remain, or crazy. What was a once bustling lively settled village has now turned into a barren cavern with no life.


Half way in the middle of the evening, I could see someone again cursing at their failures. "How many times must I miss before I punch something!!!!". I have given up following for fear I may end up missing by morning light. As quickly as the figure disappeared a snarling sound was audible in the distance and then, as previous nights, screams of terror.

I closed my eyes, hoping for the daylight to bring good news, but in my mind, I knew this was not true.


The elders gathered once more for their potential last meeting of the minds. As they gathered it was clear... my mind was right. Watching each and every elder enter into the Chamber of Elders.... I could not help but notice.












Termy had not arrived. He had disappeared into the night. I pray the elders wake up and find what is left of the evil ones amongst the group.


Yours Faithfully,

Thian


Villagers Alive
Dragonldy640
Brant
PhocQ
Deetster
Kenya
Jackie
Dragontear
Michael!

The GraveYard
Day 1: Bryan - Lynched - Villager
Night 1: Pete - Night Killed - ??????
Day 2: Vastfanatic - Lynched - Villager
Night 2: Tiffani - Night Killed - ??????
Day 3: Dogdude84 - Lynched - Villager
Night 3: Termy - Night Killed - ???????
Day 4: Villagers, last chance. Good luck!

DEADLINE: OCTOBER 12th @ 23:59

Votes: 5 Votes To Lynch


Pending Votes
Brant, PhocQ, Deetster, Kenya, Jackie, Dragontear, Michael!

Termy was killed? That is completely shocking to me since he was so confusingly suspicious and one of my top targets to lynch this round. I get the feeling that the wolves will try to frame me once again for targeting him since he likely would have voted for me and since the people who voted with me before weren't killed.

I'm really sorry for pushing for Dogdude last round. At least one of my assumptions was wrong, and I took Dogdude's response to my accusation to to be extremely suspicious. I was almost positive that he was an evil role. Now we're in a "lynch an evil role or die" situation.

I still think that Jackie and PhocQ should be in the clear, unless one of them was the sorcerer, but I'll go as far as assuming that's not the case, which hopefully isn't too foolish of an assumption. Although last round some of my assumptions were too foolish, so maybe I'll regret that later. That means I'll have to vote for Deetster, Dragonldy, Dragontear, Kenya, or Michael. 3 of those 5 likely have evil roles, so it's absolutely vital that we're able to get the 5 villagers together against one of them. I encourage the villagers to stay open-minded and willing to compromise as we HAVE to reach a majority and lynch someone or we definitely lose. The good thing is that if we pick one in random, we have a 3/5 chance in lynching an evil role. And if we're able to think through it, that should hopefully increase our chances even more. It's just going to be challenging because we need unity and perfection. I still can't get why the wolves killed Termy as he wasn't around that much and would've likely hurt our chances at that unity. I sense that means that the wolves and sorcerer are confident enough in their position here, meaning they expect at least one villager to vote with them anyway. So I think at least one of either Deetster, Dragonldy, and Michael is a villager, as they're the three people who I think are mostly likely to vote against me whether they're wolves or villagers. They are still my top suspects, though. Termy would have been another.

I'll post more later after I see some thoughts, determine how bad it looks for my survival this round (and the chances of a villager victory), and try to generate some more logical conclusions based on past rounds to help our cause.

*Sigh* this sucks. I still stand by what I said before when I said I was suspicious of Dragonldy and Deetster.. just how much Deet wouldn't vote for Dragonldy and what not. Then how he tried to make her sound weird for how she acted last round, just makes me feel like he was trying to make them sound less together.

Anyway there is also the situation of maybe Brant showing that "proof" was his way of putting the 3 evil people in the clear.. I mean it does make sense and it's a huge possibility that is the reason he did that. I don't know why we were all so quick to believe him, obviously those two would believe him if it helps their case in being in the clear.. whether they are evil or not..

I don't know there is just something fishy going on and I am not sure in what direction to point fingers. Because the only person I know 100% is a villager is myself.

But whoever is trying to frame whoever.. like if Brant is a villager.. one of those people trying to accuse him.. has to be a wolf.. and then of course a few villages just fell into their trap. But yeah PhocQ and Jackie aren't COMPLETELY in the clear because one could be a sorcerer and could have already figured out who the seer was and got the wolf to kill that person during the night, hence not needing to do a night time action.

But I'm also starting to think that DragonTear may have a role of some sort.. I just feel like he always just wants to be safe so will vote whoever the majority is voting. But I may be wrong.

I keep telling myself to shut up because I don't want to isolate any more villagers like I did with Cam, BUT I'll keep talking. I fear that two villagers are going to vote for me, probably, and then the wolves/sorcerers could be all over that if they're online together and end the game right there. So I'll try to be around a lot to follow this.

If Michael's not a wolf, I really think the wolves are depending on him voting for me. I know they're keeping me alive to split the village. And I think they're keeping Michael around because he's the most deadset on voting for me. That's assuming that he's not a wolf. If he is a wolf, he's playing one of the boldest, most intelligent wolf games I've ever seen since not many are suspecting him and he's voted in the minority every round.

So I could see Deetster, Dragonldy, and maybe Dragontear as the three evil roles, possibly. Dragontear did vote for Dragonldy at one point, though, for whatever that means. There may be a connection between Deetster and Dragonldy even though Deetster does seem to be trying to deny it.

Alrighty, here is a list of who has been voted by whom. I tried going through Thians previous posts, but...I get some message "doesn't meet your criteria" once in a while when doing that....idk, but I think I got most of it, besides maybe quick retractions Thian doesn't take note of, or things I accidentally missed.

Brant: Michael!, Dragonldy, Deetster, Dragontear
Dragonldy: Kenya, Brant, Dragontear, Jackie
Jackie: Dragontear
Michael!: Deetster
PhocQ: No one
Kenya: No one
Deetster: No one
Dragontear: No one

Here, likely more importantly, are some people who have never voted for certain people

Brant-Jackie-PhocQ-Kenya
PhocQ-Dragonldy-Deetster
PhocQ-Dragontear-Kenya-Michael!
PhocQ-Dragontear-Kenya-Deetster

That's just...some, but what I do find interesting, is the rather large group that hasn't voted for Brant once despite him being a perpetual target. I think it was something that he pointed at Jackie/Phoc, and that made them not want to vote him, plus PhocQ overall hasn't really been voting much if he doesn't need to, but I think it needs to be considered significant that 4-some. It just seems really odd how people have been swayed to certain directions continuously, and often they are wrong, yet those 4 have not either this time or last time seemed to really even consider Brant.

For the sake of Brant trying, and those 2 MAYBE being proven, I think it would be far too extreme for Brant as a wolf-allied to try to "clear" both the wolf-allied people.

Because I find that group so odd though, I am going to vote the person who piqued my interest last round, who I also find the strangest to be part of that group after all of this time, so I vote to lynch Kenya

As for the me-Dragonldy thing, I wanted to bring that up because we would need someone to be part of our orientation, and as I brough up before, the only other person who didn't vote to lynch Dragonldy besides myself were Michael! and PhocQ. I think it would be odd however for any 3 of us 4 to realistically be considered wolves since I voted against Michael!, Michael! didn't go along with my Mandie lynch, PhocQ never voted Brant with us, and PhocQ apparently is "cleared". It also to me seems odd to suggest me and Dragonldy if we worked together would then be working with someone who voted her.

Then again, people could be playing a trickier and more complex game than just that, but that's my argument against this idea that me/Dragonldy are working together, because I feel like this always comes up in games, lol, and right now I can't see a logical person that we would be coordinating with if that were true. I even said last round I am completely fine if you guys want to take her out, and I'd go along with it, in order to either see my lynch my "fellow wolf" or to at the least show, SEE that wasn't a wolf like I kinda felt, let's move on.

I do admit her vote last round was odd though, but Kenya I think overall is just way stranger to me. Dragontear, if you ARE a villager, make sure to really think about things, cause I'm sure it'll be hard for you to vote against her, lol.

But that's the just the thing though.. I'm not a wolf. I would like to ask why it's strange how I've been behaving? What have I done that's so strange?

But if you guys want to lose go ahead and lynch me, because I know I"m innocent.. and once I am killed you will see that too and lose and it's yet another told ya so moment for me. I'm happy to get to do that for a second time. Sounds like fun times to me.

What is frustrating about this game is how well people are at defending themselves, therefore I could think one thing and then they will speak and I'm like okay now they sound innocent but then it comes back to well if they are innocent and so is this person and this person and this person.. than who are the wolves.. or who is the sorcerer and how come we haven't gotten at least ONE of them yet. I'm so confused now..

Interestingly, Deetster's logic there with who voted for who is similar to what I was going to do. It needs to be looked at a little cautiously, though, because people occasionally throw out fake votes. It's still risky to throw votes as quickly as the majority can finalize a lynch, though, with this format. I tend to believe people more who make longer posts as well. I'm still not completely sold on Deetster's innocence or Kenya's guiltiness, but it's something to think about. I'm withholding my vote until more people post and I figure out what I need to do to vote for the person who I most think is a wolf that allows us to get the majority. I'm willing to compromise for sure.

I have seen Kenya's loyalty to me a little bit suspicious, but at the same time, she's done the same thing in past game where she went with her gut and stuck to it. She's reacting exactly the same way now and the same way after she was accused last game, so...I don't know. I made a mistake there and don't want to make it again. I think I need something a little more to make the push to vote for her. We have time to discuss this though.

What stands out the most about Dragonldy to me is the fact that she did side with the minority last round. Like with Dogdude, the fact that she voted for me could be the fact that I previously accused her of being a wolf and she was just a villager. She has stuck with the majority in the past, though. She even voted for Termy when it looked like the majority was going to be for him, so her voting for me over Dogdude is something that I feel is suspicious. What really stood out with Dogdude that made her trust him when most people were starting to think he was guilty? It's almost like she knew he was going to be innocent and wanted to set herself up to look better by not being involved in the lynching. Again, I could be over thinking that logic way too much, so I don't know. Deetster's logic about how she isn't a part of any obvious group is something to consider as well.

*is still stumped*

Wow, I didn't expect this at all. Sorry, Dogdude. I really thought you were wolfy. Bye Termy.

Okay, so first of all I agree that we have to be cautious since this could be our last chance to get a wolf/sorcerer.

I don't think I will do anything until I see more posts/ideas but here are some of my initials thoughts/reactions..

First of all, these two results blow some theories out of the water for me but there are still patterns which could be drawn here. So, when I read Brant talking about how the wolves want to keep him alive and expect certain people (like Michael) to continue to go after him, it occurs to me that of course he would say that. Killing Michael would point to him and not killing him leaves his #1 accuser alive so he looks innocent. I have definitely thought, and still think, Brant seems like a villager all game. I have trusted my gut, discounted Michael's ideas and pretty much had him at the bottom of my suspect list all along. Maybe I am being duped and shouldn't be so quick to trust my gut, though. It was obviously wrong about Dogdude. Also something I thought about with Brant. He pointed out his pairings to us last round and, while it seems logical that wolves would vote together, maybe it makes more sense that they wouldn't so they could more easily throw people off.

Kenya and Dragontear have been voting together all along and previously I discounted it because I have been on the same side with them almost every vote. I think with Kenya on all. I can't really be so quick to discount anything now, though. I kind of agree with Deet's theory (lol will wonders ever cease?) on Kenya because of her voting with Dragontear and also with Brant. On one hand they could be working together so obviously and then telling us about their bf/gf relationship so we don't think there is anything going on. Kind of "hiding in plain sight", if you will. On the other hand, one of them could be playing the other because they think they can get them not to vote for them and especially if one votes like the other does then maybe they figure they will trust them more.

Deet and Dragonldy is also a strong possibility because of Deet's prior refusal to vote for her. I know Deet spoke against Dragonldy by pointing out her actions as suspicious this past round but that could have just been to throw us off. Who said that, lol? I think that was Kenya's point. Dragonldy did seem strange when she voted with Dogdude so quickly, but I also tend to think she plays emotionally. Maybe that matters and maybe it doesn't but Dogdude did strongly defend her so maybe that made her think he was innocent.

Michael has been absent and I don't think he's on anyone's list. That could be brilliance, as Brant says but I, for one, will not be voting based on a vague theory.

I agree with Kenya that no one is completely cleared and, although, I know I'm innocent I think we should all look at each other as possible suspects. That being said, I still have people I just don't think are wolves. I would probably put Phoc and Michael at the bottom of my own list along with myself. Michael for the reasons stated above, Phoc because I still think he probably doesn't have a role and myself for obvious reasons. :p

I almost want to add Brant to the bottom of my list but I also feel like maybe I should be more open-minded this round because of what's at stake. I guess I feel like I don't want to rule anyone out if someone has a good reason not to.

For now, though, this leaves 4 or 5 people who I suspect most and I am still very open to more theories/ideas. We need to get it right this time, guys.

well well.. looks like we lost two more villagers. this blows. at this point i dont know who is a wolf. or who are the wolves i guess i should say. at first when i started to play my gut was telling me that Jackie and Brant were wolves. it was just a hunch i had because of all they were talking and with their safe and target lists, it just seems supicious to me. but as time went by i found myself re-thinking that. i dont think jackie is a wolf but i still think that brant is up there. maybee hes not a wolf, he could be the sorcerer. i really did think that dog dude was a wolf. he even tryied to say he was before he was lynched lol i got all excited for nothing haha. but at this point im thinking dragonlady/brant. or dragonlady/deetster. but we have all been wrong in the past. but im gonna wait and see how the voting goes before i put mine into the pot.

I have some combination generators on my computer that I might as well use. If you're interested in any possible groups, I can generate the list.

In general, with 8 people, there are 56 possible combinations of 2 wolves & 1 sorcerer. If we each eliminate ourselves knowing we're villagers, there are 35 possible combinations with 7 people. If we go as far as clearing Jackie and PhocQ, then there are 10 combinations with the remaining 5 people. I'll post these since the other two lists would be obnoxiously long for the thread.

Everyone is in here the same amount, and it's alphabetical. So this list alone isn't accusing anyone even if it might look that way with the D names all first. Brant, Jackie, and PhocQ have been omitted. So it's Deetster, Dragonldy, Dragontear, Kenya, and Michael on the list.

01. Deetster, Dragonldy, Dragontear
02. Deetster, Dragonldy, Kenya
03. Deetster, Dragonldy, Michael
04. Deetster, Dragontear, Kenya
05. Deetster, Dragontear, Michael
06. Deetster, Kenya, Michael
07. Dragonldy, Dragontear, Kenya
08. Dragonldy, Dragontear, Michael
09. Dragonldy, Kenya, Michael
10. Dragontear, Kenya, Michael

Just something more to think about if we really want to start looking at possible groupings and probabilities. Maybe a few could be ruled out.

Just for fun, I'll post ALL POSSIBLE GROUPS OF 3.

01. Brant, Deetster, Dragonldy
02. Brant, Deetster, Dragontear
03. Brant, Deetster, Jackie
04. Brant, Deetster, Kenya
05. Brant, Deetster, Michael
06. Brant, Deetster, PhocQ,
07. Brant, Dragonldy, Dragontear
08. Brant, Dragonldy, Jackie
09. Brant, Dragonldy, Kenya
10. Brant, Dragonldy, Michael
11. Brant, Dragonldy, PhocQ
12. Brant, Dragontear, Jackie
13. Brant, Dragontear, Kenya
14. Brant, Dragontear, Michael
15. Brant, Dragontear, PhocQ
16. Brant, Jackie, Kenya
17. Brant, Jackie, Michael
18. Brant, Jackie, PhocQ
19. Brant, Kenya, Michael
20. Brant, Kenya, PhocQ
21. Brant, Michael, PhocQ
22. Deetster, Dragonldy, Dragontear
23. Deetster, Dragonldy, Jackie
24. Deetster, Dragonldy, Kenya
25. Deetster, Dragonldy, Michael
26. Deetster, Dragonldy, PhocQ
27. Deetster, Dragontear, Jackie
28. Deetster, Dragontear, Kenya
29. Deetster, Dragontear, Michael
30. Deetster, Dragontear, PhocQ
31. Deetster, Jackie, Kenya
32. Deetster, Jackie, Michael
33. Deetster, Jackie, PhocQ
34. Deetster, Kenya, Michael
35. Deetster, Kenya, PhocQ
36. Deetster, Michael, PhocQ
37. Dragonldy, Dragontear, Jackie
38. Dragonldy, Dragontear, Kenya
39. Dragonldy, Dragontear, Michael
40. Dragonldy, Dragontear, PhocQ
41. Dragonldy, Jackie, Kenya
42. Dragonldy, Jackie, Michael
43. Dragonldy, Jackie, PhocQ
44. Dragonldy, Kenya, Michael
45. Dragonldy, Kenya, PhocQ
46. Dragonldy, Michael, PhocQ
47. Dragontear, Jackie, Kenya
48. Dragontear, Jackie, Michael
49. Dragontear, Jackie, PhocQ
50. Dragontear, Kenya, Michael
51. Dragontear, Kenya, PhocQ
52. Dragontear, Michael, PhocQ
53. Jackie, Kenya, Michael
54. Jackie, Kenya, PhocQ
55. Jackie, Michael, PhocQ
56. Kenya, Michael, PhocQ

The ORG I was playing recently ended and I don't have class on Fridays, so I should be able to contribute a fair amount this weekend. I'll just get my vote in now since you all probably know where it's going anyway. Just so we're clear since personal relationships have been discussed a bit recently, I'm actually very good friends with this person. I suspect him because his actions in this game have deviated from what I would expect from him as a villiager, and I feel as though I have a good idea of how he could be implimenting a successful wolfy strategy. I'll explain my thoughts more by early tomorrow at the latest.

I vote to lynch Brant... again.

If you're actually a villager and don't change your vote, we lose, Michael.

Would there be any way that you'd be willing to compromise on another target, or are you just deadset on voting for me? Because I don't have an evil role, and the wolves clearly want us to to target one another. And it's going to win them the game.

Alright guys. We are down to the nitty gritty here.


While my efforts of self-preservation have succeeded, any attempts at figuring out who the wolves are for sure have obviously failed. At this point in the game, it's all of our obligations to just lay it all out on the line and make the right choice. They were able to stay their executions at the 11th hour last game, I think we can do it in this one as well. And at this point, whether I get lynched or not is a moot point. So I figure I might as well start pointing my own finger.


I went through all the past boards and revisisted what happened and what I was thinking at the time. I'm hoping I can tie that into where we are now and see if any of it makes sense.

Day 1:

Why did Bryan die? Almost everyone agreed with Termy, Bryan as the 2 best choices. Kenya and Pete were the ones who singled him out and chose him from the 2. Does this really matter since Pete, Termy and Bryan all turned out innocent? I didn't know then what to make of it but looking back it wasn't the last time Kenya led a vote on someone.


Why did Pete get eaten? Eating Pete really didn't do much of anything to the dynamics. The only reason I would see a purpose to eating Pete would be to try and frame Termy since I think Pete was really the first to bring him up as a real candidate.

At the time I was very surprised how quickly Bryan got eaten. I knew we were getting close to the deadline but I was disappointed it all happened so fast. I made note at the time that once 6 or 7 people had agreed with either Bryan or Termy, it was Kenya, Pete and Brant who got the ball rolling. Even though I wanted to get a few votes on Termy the rest of the votes just went tumbling onto Bryan as the deadline approached. Overall, I still don't know if what happened during this Day amounted to much evidence of wolves. It didn't really seem like the wolves had to do anything but be their normal selves.



Day 2:

Why did Mandie get lynched? I can't help but feel like Day 2 is our real clue to the wolves having to make a move. Day 2 had so much tension to the vote and had it going back and forth by such a fine line that I feel there must be something to it. I know with 3 votes to work with, if we were close to catching the wolves they could make it very difficult to finish them off.

At the time I strongly felt like a wolf was targeted in this vote somehow. I figured either Brant was a wolf and once he lost 2 votes on Termy and the momentum he jumped to Dragonldy when Tiffani switched.. And when that failed jumped to Mandie once Phoc and JAckie vote for her. OR Dragonldy was the wolf and Tiffani happened to be right. But that means that it was Deetster who brought up Mandie which eventually led to her lynch and possibly saved Dragonldy. But I don't know if that really works with Deetster offering to vote Dragonldy if I did. That would be a huge mistake if I had actually done it and then he didn't.

When the dust settled from that vote I had developed strong suspicions of Brant. With him also having Kenya and Dragontear and Jackie voting with him three times now, in close succession of each other each time. I was also keeping an eye on Deet because he seemed awfully quick to say he and Dragontear couldn't be both wolves because Dragontear pointed his finger at Deet. It seemed like a bit of stretch to come out and just say "see, it can't be us 2."

Why did Tiffani get eaten? The only things I saw Tiffani say that might make her a target was pointing her finger at who wanted Bryan out the most (which was started by Kenya but agreed to by the rest). Tiffani also made mention that Dragontear might know more than he is letting on. I don't know if either of those had anything to do with her death, but they are the only things I see being attached to her.






Day 3:

Why did Dogdude get lynched? I started the day wanting to cozy up to my number 1 suspect Brant. He made that quite easy by pointing me out as safe. While that was nice of him, with him being a suspect of mine it didn't make a lot of sense to me.

Brant made a revised list to have Dog, Dragontear, Dragonldy, Kenya and Termy at the bottom. He named a bunch of combos that he thought the 2 wolves would be. Of all those combos there is only one possible one left since Dog and Termy are dead. Dragontear and Kenya. I think it's surprising Brant hasn't said this himself yet.

Even tho Brant says he doesn't suspect Michael, Michael goes after Brant anyhow and the vote quickly becomes Brant vs Dogdude. My reason for backing up Brant was still mostly because I suspected him as a wolf. Obviously in hindsight I think I should have maybe voted against Brant if only to see what would have happened. I think if I voted Brant that Kenya, Dragontear and Jackie would have voted for Dogdude.

Why did Termy get eaten? There are only 2 reasons that I can really think of. Either it was simply the least likely person to be protected by the bodyguard. Or the only real option the wolves felt they had. Maybe they felt any other target would cast suspicion on one of them.



So where does that leave me now? Frick if I know. lol One thing that I feel like I have the biggest grasp on is that there are almost 2 sides, with some minor mixing between them. Brant, Kenya, Dragontear and a slightly more distant Jackie. Then I look over and see Michael with a more independant Deetster. If the wolf is one of Michael or Deet then the other has to be a wolf or Sorcerer. The way they have interacted shows me they trust each other either as Villagers or Bad Guys. But I have a harder time figuring out who the 3rd would be with them. There could be cases made for Dragonldy, Dragontear, Jackie and Kenya even. But there are reasons why it wouldn't be any of them as well.

I feel like I just alienated everyone but I am just trying to lay it out there. I just hope you guys understand why it is each of you is somewhat suspect to me and why some of you seem a lot more likely to be wolves. We know the wolves have been active players and we know they have fooled us thus far. This is not simply a case of us not being able to guess which one is them.

Brant wrote:

If you're actually a villager and don't change your vote, we lose, Michael.

Would there be any way that you'd be willing to compromise on another target, or are you just deadset on voting for me? Because I don't have an evil role, and the wolves clearly want us to to target one another. And it's going to win them the game.

Perhaps Dragontear?

Everything you just said really made a lot of sense Phoc, and I thank you for saying it.

That's exactly what I've noticed going through, that you have done what you had to do to not stand out, and therefore survive, I'm just glad they killed Termy instead of you, since I think both of you were acting similar, but Idk if he would have contributed that, lol.

Anyway, I think I trust you are a villager based on you finally doing this now, and your suspicious allignment for me, was you voting constantly with Kenya and Brant, but it appears that you are looking in the right directions.

Personally, I think if it's NOT Brant, it's definitely Michael!, but I have always been more suspicious of Brant since day 2, so when Michael! went on his rant he moved from on my most suspected list, all the way down to some of my least suspected.

I think we're onto something, but I kinda trust you more as a villager that Michael! still Phoc, cause you have been acting exactly as I've seen you act before, in that you are thinking of your survival from the lynch a lot, and I've sensed that in the game, especially in compiling and realizing that you've not really pointed a finger much as you said.

I'll take your lead on whatever, but I'm strongly leaning on Brant, and as my vote represents, a bit on Kenya, but I guess with Michael! voting Brant, and you seeming to have though Brant through out the game...I could consider both.

Whoever though of the Dragons and Jackie are villagers...guys, we gotta do this right here, lol.

I'm seriously not a wolf. Or a sorcerer. I'd place my vote on anyone in the game right now to prove that. I'd vote for Kenya, Deetster, if that's what the majority appeared to be leaning towards. I'd vote for Dragontear as well, Michael. Also, yes, I did notice Dragontear and Kenya were the only group left that I suspected with Dogdude dying last round. I'm coming to think that since my logic showed there being an 80% chance of Dogdude being a wolf (and before Tiffani was killed, it revealed an almost 100% chance that either Dogdude or Tiffani were wolves), that my assumptions were probably wrong and led to conclusions that I shouldn't realistically consider. That's not to say that I will or won't vote for Dragontear or Kenya, but we really need 5 votes stacked on a name. And I'm not a name you want those votes stacked onto unless you want to be doing the Reunion tomorrow. Although I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, lol. It's been a fun ride, but I'd prefer not being used by wolves to win the game next time.

I am withholding my vote at the moment and hope that everyone else does as well because it's incredibly risky to let 2 votes pile on top of one another.

I need to read through PhocQ's and Deetster's posts more tomorrow, but I'm still struggling to highlight certain groups based on certain criteria in Excel that I just generated and come up with any conclusion that I like. Termy was probably killed because the wolves feel safe without him to randomly confuse everyone, so that leads me to believe that the wolves probably feel safe and that one person we assume is safe is one of them or that they've done such a good job of separating so that we won't lean towards associating that particular group. It's just so strange because why would the wolves really want to take him out?

Strangely though as it is because he's been targeting me and I don't think I've ever voted for him or suggested him as an imminent vote to lynch, I think that Michael's a villager. Why would he have been so anti-lynch since the beginning if we were just going after Bryan and Termy, who were both villagers? He's just sticking out way too much, and I can't understand why he'd be doing that as a wolf. Sort of like me, since I've been sticking out ridiculously, and I'd like to think that I'm capable of doing a better job of trying to blend in if I were a wolf. I think the same thing about Michael.

I was about to say that I predicted Deetster, Dragonldy, and PhocQ as being the most prominent group of 3, then realized that the sorcerer (and we're given clues about this in the story) hasn't identified the seer yet and has kept checking. So...yeah, I still think that Jackie and PhocQ have to be in the clear. Ugh.

I guess these five groups of suspicion make the most sense if we eliminate people who voted for one another in previous rounds.

Deetster, Dragonldy, Michael
Deetster, Dragontear, Kenya
Deetster, Dragontear, Michael
Deetster, Kenya, Michael
Dragontear, Kenya, Michael

Basically Deetster's in the most groups -- 4. Michael's also in 4/5. Dragonldy's probably going to end up being an evil role because she hasn't said a thing today and has been on the site. I think she's just waiting patiently to add her vote on to me when the time comes. Which could be soon based on several people stating I'm one of their prime suspects. So Deetster and Dragonldy are the two who I'd be most willing to lynch, and I suppose Michael as well even though my personal impulsiveness says he's not a wolf. Just throwing out an opinion before I definitely sign off for the night.

Wow I missed a lot.. guess that happens when ya gotta work lol!

Anyway I would really like to know who the wolves are at this point.. because they have me stumped!

You all can accuse me all you want, but sadly I'm not a wolf. I wish I was though, because being a wolf is lots of fun. But nope was only a wolf once.. and I admitted it to everyone.. remember Jackie?

I think this is how my list is of who I suspect the most to the least..

Deetster
Dragonldy
DragonTear

Michael
Brant

Jackie
PhocQ

I don't know what it is but I haven't suspected PhocQ at all from the start because of how he explained why Michael didn't want to lynch right away and just going on about him possibly being a Seer and what not, it just made me feel that he was probably innocent.

Deetster and Dragonldy, I have already stated why I feel they are suspicious.

As for DragonTear, just because he's my boyfriend does not mean I won't vote to lynch him. Yes we've voted together but not the whole game.. he was doing crazy votes like voting for Jackie and to this day even stated in here that he is still suspicious of her and Brant. That isn't my opinion at all that is all him. Not to mention that anytime I voted, I would just tell him hey I voted, you should check out the thread and that's it. I didn't say hey man vote for so and so lol. The reason I am suspicious of him is because of how he keeps wanting to lynch people and will just lynch whoever is closest to being lynched.

When it comes to Michael and Brant, I don't even know what to think.. which is why they are kind of in the middle.. below my most suspicious least and above my least suspicious.. they are kind of neutral to me.. in the whole I have no fricken clue what to believe when it comes to those two.

Okay, so I have read these posts a couple of times and please correct me if I'm wrong but this seems to be the suspect list of everyone so far. I put either 1, 2 or 3 top suspects depending on what the person said:

Dragontear: Dragonldy, Brant, Deetster
Brant: Deetster, Dragonldy
Michael: Brant, Dragontear
Phoc: Brant, (everyone else lol)
Deetster: Kenya, Brant
Kenya: Deetster, Dragonldy, Dragontear
Dragonldy: Brant? (this is an assumption based on previous rounds and given the fact she has yet to post this round)


Looks to me like the top suspects among us are Deetster, Dragonldy or Brant. It's pretty much split but Brant's name comes up the most (even taking out Dragonldy, who hasn't posted yet). It may be worth noting that everyone who suspects Deet also suspects Dragonldy but the people who suspect Brant suspect various other people. I left myself off the list on purpose because this whole process is for the purpose of helping me hone in on who I really think is my number one suspect.

We can look at groupings of two or three but ultimately we can only lynch one - and it needs to be a wolf or the sorcerer. Period. I think the best way is to figure out who seems the best candidate and has the most evidence against them. If it happens that they are grouped with people who also have a lot of evidence/suspicion then that just helps point to them.

This has all been said as far as groupings so I don't think I'm bringing anything new here except to say that I think I am starting to agree most with the possibility of Brant/Kenya/Dragontear and if that's true then Brant is the most common denominator in that grouping. I mentioned that Deet defending Dragonldy in Day 2 and then jumping over to Mandie was suspicious ... except I think what Phoc pointed out about how it would be extremely risky for Deet to say he would vote Dragonldy and then not do it makes sense.

I also want to point out that while most people have listed who they suspect most and who they would be possibly willing to vote (or have actually voted their top suspect already), Brant has pretty much said he's willing to vote 5 other people. I think this is the time to get it right - not to say you are willing to vote almost anyone else at this point.

I'm really leaning toward voting Brant right now. It just seems the more that is said the more I am beginning to believe that someone who I thought was a very motivated villager is more likely a very clever wolf. Also, looking at what Michael says about being close friends with Brant and the fact that he is not acting as he would expect him to is kind of hardcore to me. I almost want to say it's not fair to use that against him but it's out there and there's no taking it back, now. Just like Kenya/DT's relationship is out there. We can't base the game on it or anything but we can't completely ignore it because it factors in to some extent.

I'm rambling now and I need to get to bed. I'll check again tomorrow to see what anyone else has to say.

Well, I get what you were saying Jackie, and that sounds good to me.

I also think The perception being placed upon me and Dragonldy as a duo, is something that has been repeated in the past, and Brant is trying to use that because it's what has been met with the most nods thus far, and it's all he has left since he ruled out Dogdude as a wolf using his statistical analyses which were obviously flawed since...Dogdude was a villager, and is now dead, lol.

And yes, I didn't even think of it til now, but I did say during that Dragonldy/Brant split vote that we need to go ahead and do a lynch, cause as I and others have felt since day one, it's just better to do a lynch than to not to do a lynch. I told Phoc I'd jump on board Dragonldy, so I think if anything, that should at least clear us from being together, though I guess either of us could technically be wolves alone, but I think I've said my peace on myself, and hopefully she gets here and says her on herself, and makes her decision on what's best to do for the village, if she's a villager.

DEADLINE: OCTOBER 12th @ 23:59

Votes: 5 Votes To Lynch

1 vote of 5: Brant (Michael)
1 Vote of 5: Keyna (Deetster)



Pending Votes
Brant, PhocQ, dragonldy640, Kenya, Jackie, Dragontear

I only have a couple of minutes to jump on here while I am at work but Deet brought up something I wanted to address before I forgot or the vote started to move before I had a chance.

Deet, you bring up a good point when you question why Termy was killed instead of me. Here I thought I was doing a good job and ensuring I wouldn't be eaten by the wolves at night when in fact I may have done the exact opposite. If the wolves killed Termy because he hadn't really sided with anyone and would make an easy kill without making any of them look suspicious, then they could have looked at me the same way. Both Termy and I were the two people who pointed their fingers the least. But I would think the wolves would think I am the bigger threat out of the 2 of us, so why wouldn't they kill me at night?

I have thought about that a lot this morning and the best reason I can think of is the fact that Brant had cleared me from not only being a wolf, but from having any role at all. I would think the wolves #1 goal is to rid the village of the seer and the bodyguard. I personally think the seer is long dead. I dont know if they figured him out or just killed the seer by luck. But I do think the seer is dead.

So that leaves the bodyguard. Which brings me to another point. Even if the wolves are successfull this round, the game isn't quite over yet so long as the bodyguard is alive. It will be 4-3 villagers vs Wolves if we lynch a villager this round. So that means the wolves STILL have to make a successfull kill at night. So I have no doubt the wolves are very concerned with who the Bodyguard could be. Since Brant cleared me of any role, I could see the wolves leaving me alone and going after someone who could still be the bodyguard... Termy.

Whether Brant is a wolf, or the wolves believe Brant's logic about both myself and Jackie not having a role, then I would see them agreeing with Brant and trying their best to keep me and Jackie from being lynched or eaten. The wolves would much rather lynch and eat possible role players.

So I am going to go back and look again at who the biggest supporters of me and Jackie's innocence are. It just makes sense that if me and Jackie don't have roles that the wolves would rather keep the focus on people who COULD be Bodyguard or Seer.

I'm on break today and don't have many plans, so I'll be here posting/fighting-for-my-life/trying to keep the villagers in the game basically the whole day.

I mentioned this before, but there are clues in the story that state whether or not the sorcerer has identified the seer. The sorcerer appears to be experiencing growing frustration based on Thian's story that they haven't identified the seer yet. So since they haven't identified the seer by now, it's likely that the seer is dead. Anyone who is potentially targeting me can't be the seer. Which leaves no one at all left.

I'd say that I most suspect from most to least:

1) Dragonldy: The best way not to be caught in a lie is to say nothing at all. She's so UTR here, and it's frustrating because we almost lynched her during day 2. Yet we still don't know anything about her, other than the fact that she'll come on later in the day and say that she'll vote for me.
2) Deetster: He seems to me like he's already got his mind set on lynching me and is saying little things to fuel everyone else's suspicion. At least that's from my perspective. He may vote for Kenya to split the votes, or because she's a villager and is okay lynching her as well. Someone will mention reasons to suspect me, and he'll just agree with them and add a little bit more reason why I should be lynched. If you go back and read Michael's original reason for picking me to lynch, I feel like the same thing can be said about Deetster here. He's so subtle yet I feel like he's controlling this whole thing.
3) Dragontear: I can't really read him, but Kenya brought up a good point. Why has he been supporting me so much and then mentions that he thought Jackie and I were his top suspects? It's like he's just lynching to lynch and doesn't have the same goal as the rest of the villagers. Again bringing up the Deetster/Dragonldy duo which may or may not exist, I could see Dragontear being new to this game and placing a vote for one of his fellow wolves/sorcerer, which has thrown us off and prevented us from seeing this group based on our other statistics. But Deetster-Dragonldy-Dragontear seems like a definite possible grouping to me. And I'd like to vote for him just to prove that I'm not working with him.
4) Kenya: She seems real and genuine to me. There are things like her picking Bryan over Termy as the target day one, but Termy was a villager anyway --- so it doesn't matter. I think she's supporting me because she believes that I'm genuine. She knows me from the past games here. Dragontear doesn't, which is what I find more suspicious about him.
5) Michael: I know him outside the game as do a few others, but yeah, he also has that real/genuine sense to me. It's funny that he finds me suspicious, but he's incredibly smart and probably just a little over-paranoid that I'm evil here. I don't really blame him for wanting that finality about whether or not I'm a wolf.
6) PhocQ: He has been WAY under the radar this game and also seems to be trying to fuel everyone's suspicion to lynch me. I almost put him with Deetster and Michael in that category, and if it wasn't for the fact that I cleared him, he'd be one of my main targets here.
7) Jackie: She's been more under the radar this game as well, but still has made an effort to post just enough that she's not too much different. I'd suspect her mildly but not a lot if I didn't clear her.

Since I'm a villager, I tend to think that anyone who is trying to turn the tables towards me being lynched is suspicious considering Termy was killed to frame me. So that's what they want to do --- let other people suspect me, then say, "Ohh --- that's right! Maybe we SHOULD lynch Brant" and then vote for me but not be the ones to start it. The closer we get to actually targeting a wolf, the more likely that they are to start accusing me and switch their votes. Since I believe that Michael is a villager, then only ONE more vote for me is needed by a villager and the wolves can end the game soon. I beg all villagers to PLEASE not place this vote. Michael, I'm seriously begging you to retract your vote for me before it's too late since more are likely coming VERY soon.

Even though I suspect Deetster and Dragonldy more, I'm going to go ahead and state that I'll probably have to vote for Dragontear here in order to possibly get Michael's vote for support and compromise with the majority. I am actually encouraging a Dragontear vote as I don't feel like I'd be able to survive without proving that I'm not stuck with Dragontear and Kenya. We're not a group. The two of them might be, although I don't think that they are, but we're definitely not a 3-person group. And I promise you all that I'm just a villager.

I vote to lynch Dragontear.

Please retract your votes for me. I ask that, if possible, you join me on this as well. I now think that Deetster, Dragonldy, Dragontear are the evil roles. With PhocQ in the mix if he wasn't cleared. I'll also change this later if a better conclusion/compromise is reached.

PhocQ wrote:

So that leaves the bodyguard. Which brings me to another point. Even if the wolves are successfull this round, the game isn't quite over yet so long as the bodyguard is alive. It will be 4-3 villagers vs Wolves if we lynch a villager this round. So that means the wolves STILL have to make a successfull kill at night. So I have no doubt the wolves are very concerned with who the Bodyguard could be. Since Brant cleared me of any role, I could see the wolves leaving me alone and going after someone who could still be the bodyguard... Termy.

For odd numbers, wouldn't majority + 1 be 4/7 + 1 = 5/7 votes needed to lynch tomorrow if the bodyguard is still alive and protects someone? Or am I confused about that?

I also agree Termy was probably killed because I cleared Jackie/PhocQ from having a role whereas Termy was not clear. I also think a large reason why Termy was picked over other possible candidates to be the seer/bodyguard was to frame me.

One other thing is that I could've easily been a wolf with either Jackie and/or PhocQ and cleared them, letting them know beforehand what I was going to do with the print screen so that we'd send our picks in early. I didn't, but some people just seemed to agree with my logic 100% rather than question it. Which is interesting. Kenya questioned it. Deetster seemed to be one of the people mainly supporting it. Most everyone else just seemed to ignore it or supported it.