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 Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3

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Dragonbunny
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Thian
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 7:41 am



Journal Log Day 3

I have never been so terrified in my life. The Elders had turned on their own kind yet again. What ever the workings of this newly formed group of anarchists were doing, they certainly wanted The Eternal Caverns to be ruined. The village was in an uproar all night.

Mandie had been sacrificed and her soul was of purity. The Elders have now lost 4 of their own. The night fell quickly, more than I had ever imagined. I wonder if I would be greeted again with the few creatures and beings who lurked these walls at night.

I had found a place to sleep behind a rock, hidden deep within the village centre. I did not want to be discovered. Unfortunately for me, I had rested my eyes for a moment, but soon fell asleep. I can't remember how many hours had passed or what had transpired but I heard a shuffle of foot steps and a disgruntled voice mutter "No luck again!" a curse had been made. I was too late to see who it was, but my guess was it was that same person I had encountered on the first night.

Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Three+faces+of+fear
No sooner did I fully awake a loud shriek was heard in the night! I had cowered behind the rock again not wanting to peek. Out of fright I could have sworn I stayed up all night, but being so tired I had actually woken up on the ground in a small pool of water that formed from the dew inside the cave.

Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 2601335105_f8aeb48f4a
Coughing and sputtering, the sun had glimmered in through portions of the top of the cave. Quickly hurrying the Chamber of Elders. The meeting was already started, but who was missing?


Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Grand+Hall+with+Candles

Upon taking another count...... it was in fact.... Tiffani. she had not returned this morning. The villagers will miss the sweet innocence and kindness she brought to many.


Yours Faithfully,

Thian

PLAYER LIST
Villagers Alive
Termy
Dragonldy640

Brant
Dogdude84
PhocQ
Deetster
Kenya
Jackie
Dragontear
Michael!

The GraveYard
Day 1: Bryan - Lynched - Villager
Night 1: Pete - Night Killed - ??????
Day 2: Vastfanatic - Lynched - Villager
Night 2: Tiffani - Night Killed - ??????
Day 3: ((Try not to end up here will ya?))

It takes 6 to Lynch everyone!


DEADLINE: 6th October 2010 @ 23:59 EST
Votes:

Pending Votes:
Termy, Dragonldy640, Brant, Dogdude84, PhocQ, Deetster, Kenya, Jackie, Dragontear, Michael!

Welcome back everyone, good morning, lets get the debates going!
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 8:43 am

Tiffani. Sad

I think Tiffani was killed because the wolves want me and Michael to target one another again and to not reach a 6 majority, and Tiffani was one of the 5 people voting the same way as me while we had PhocQ as a possible 6th. I don't think the wolves wanted to risk me succeeding and lynching someone who wasn't on my side, giving me reason to believe that there was a wolf who was voting for me last round. I think they either want us split again to force a no-lynch or want me to be lynched.

My next post is a theory I typed yesterday, which I just modified for the death of Tiffani.


Last edited by Brant on Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:38 am; edited 4 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 8:53 am

I want to start out by repeating that I AM NOT A WOLF OR THE SORCERER, and my humor at the end of last round was an attempt to defend myself to see a potential wolf lynched rather than an active villager. Even if you're definitely going to vote to lynch me this round, I ask that you read what I have to say with an open mind. Meaning: Assumption 1: Brant is a villager.

Item of reference #1: https://2img.net/h/oi52.tinypic.com/2uel8p4.png

I've been monitoring the online list to try to gain anything useful to identify the wolves. The one key observation that I made was that Jackie and PhocQ left ORG Planet at 12:02am and 12:09am the night following Mandie’s lynch and didn't log back into the site a single time after that. Now while they were still able to read updates, they weren't able send PMs with actions for their night roles if they didn't log into the site. Assumption 2: Jackie and PhocQ are both villagers. I can't make any conclusion about any other villagers because Deetster, Dogdude, and DragonTear have been regular ORG Planet visitors and logged in several times. Kenya and Michael are invisible on the tracker. Dragonldy, Termy, and Tiffani all logged in several times.

So let me re-evaluate my stance on everyone’s position:

Deetster: Even though he was incorrectly targeting me last round, his logic makes sense in the eyes of a villager. I don't see why he'd want to change the vote from a no-lynch to a Mandie lynch at the last minute if he were a wolf since a villager not being able to vote helps the wolves by making lynching more difficult since the wolves/sorcerer have 3/10 and we’ll need all the voters that we can for the villagers to have the numbers to lynch. I also agree with what Michael! said about Deetster last round when he evaluated Deetster and placed him at a low suspicion level. I don’t think he’s a wolf unless he’s playing an absolutely brilliant and slightly risky game trying to throw us off pretending to consider the Dragonldy vote to get a lynch when he never intended to do it and wanted Mandie the target all along because she could be the seer/sorcerer and wouldn't be able to defend herself since she wasn't on, in which case he could be a wolf with Dragonldy. But I don’t think that’s the case at all.

Michael: Like Deetster, he incorrectly targeted me last round, but I don’t think he’d be nearly as standout-ish if he were a wolf. He goes quiet for a few days, shows back up with huge, insightful posts; I just don’t see that as wolf behavior. It would make more sense to lay lower, and I believe he genuinely wants to help the village. I was wondering if he was a wolf for targeting me last round. He was adamant about a no-lynch whether it was Bryan, Mandie, Dragonldy, or Termy, so I don't think he'd have accused me as a way of defending them if they were wolves together. As a wolf, he wouldn't just target me for no reason because it would put the target on his back when it was revealed that I'm a villager. So I don't think he's a wolf unless he’s pulling an incredibly risky strategy.

Assumption 3: Deetster and Michael are both villagers.

Safe List 2.0
1) Brant (safe because my entire theory rests on the fact that I’m a villager, and you need to assume this is true for a point for the rest to make sense)
2) Jackie (safe because of online list activity during the night)
3) PhocQ (safe because of online list activity during the night)
4) Deetster (safe by my hopefully logical and intuitive assumptions)
5) Michael (safe by my hopefully logical and intuitive assumptions)

Potential Wolves
1) DogDude84
2) Dragonldy640
3) DragonTear
4) Kenya
5) Termy

Assumption 4: The wolves did not vote for one another. We can rule out the following possible wolves:

Dragonldy and Termy = not the 2 wolves (Dragonldy voted for Termy)
Dragonldy and Dragontear = not the 2 wolves (Dragontear voted for Dragonldy)
Dragonldy and Kenya = not the 2 wolves (Kenya voted for Dragonldy)
Dragontear and Termy = not the 2 wolves (Dragontear voted for Termy)
Kenya and Termy = not the 2 wolves (Kenya voted for Termy)

Here is each person and who they theoretically could be a wolf with:

Dogdude and Dragonldy
Dogdude and Dragontear
Dogdude and Kenya
Dogdude and Termy

Dragonldy and Dogdude

DragonTear and Dogdude
DragonTear and Kenya

Kenya and Dogdude
Kenya and Dragontear

Termy and Dogdude

Dogdude and Dragonldy
Dogdude and Dragontear
Dogdude and Termy
Dogdude and Kenya
Dragontear and Kenya

Of the 5 pairs, there is an 80% chance that Dogdudeis a wolf if my assumptions and calculations are correct. If we assume all 5 groups are equally possible, then:

4/5 chance that Dogdude is a wolf
2/5 chance that DragonTear is a wolf
2/5 chance that Kenya is a wolf
1/5 chance that Dragonldy is a wolf
1/5 chance that Termy is a wolf

My gut tells me that Dragontear and Kenya don’t both have evil roles because they’ve too obviously been associating and should have 1/5 probability, but I’m not going to go as far as making that assumption.

Dogdude has been playing this game in a way where he is not associated with any particular group --- making him the most difficult player to pinpoint exactly where he stands with other people. I do believe that is a strategy that a wolf would pursue. Plus the only possibility of Dragonldy and Termy being wolves is that they are coupled with Dogdude. If Dogdude is cleared, then they are cleared as well. I do think my logic is complicated, but it makes sense in my eyes that Dogdude is the best candidate to lynch.

Therefore, I vote to lynch Dogdude84. I am throwing this vote out there, but I don't want more votes to come on top of this until we discuss this fully.

Thoughts? I know this is going to be controversial because I’ve just accused two people who defended me as potentially having evil roles. Still, I want to contribute all that I can while I’m still alive, so I hope that you consider this.
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 9:43 am

DEADLINE: 6th October 2010 @ 23:59 EST

Votes:

1 Vote of 6: Dogdude84 (brant)

Pending Votes:
Termy, Dragonldy640, Dogdude84, PhocQ, Deetster, Kenya, Jackie, Dragontear, Michael!
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 12:41 pm

Just so you know you said I was coupled with two people twice on your list.. I don't know why you repeated yourself. Also for those that didn't have time to PM. That does NOT put them in the clear because they could have PMed beforehand and decided who they wanted to kill or they could have talked in email or on messengers.. I know this because in the past when I was once a wolf, I would talk to MoMo on AIM all the time about what we'd do and we always decided before it was night time of who we would kill and then send it right when night time came. Just a thought and a bit of a snap in your theory, mind you I don't think either of those 2 people are wolves anyway but I'm just saying, it's still possible they have a role of some sort.

Now I don't really agree with your theory about Deet and Dragonldy. I feel that Deet was strongly defending Dragonldy and that's what makes me suspicious about those two being wolves together.

But I do agree that DogDude could very well be a wolf, but my problems with that situation is I always feel he's an opposite role than me because he usually is. Since I'm a villager that makes me feel he could be a wolf/sorcerer but I'm not positive, his name just always makes him seem wolf-like. Plus he is a lot more quiet this game and that's not like him at all. The change in behavior is what makes him seem the most wolfy.

Also since you are in the accusing everyone mode, you should have at least made a point to make the odds of you being a wolf as well. I honestly do not feel you are but you aren't in the clear just because you say so Razz.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 1:02 pm

Kenya wrote:
Just so you know you said I was coupled with two people twice on your list.. I don't know why you repeated yourself.
I went through the 5 people, and put out the possibilities for each of them, so there were duplicates. Then I eliminated duplicates in the final list of 5 possibilities.

Kenya wrote:
Also for those that didn't have time to PM. That does NOT put them in the clear because they could have PMed beforehand and decided who they wanted to kill or they could have talked in email or on messengers.. I know this because in the past when I was once a wolf, I would talk to MoMo on AIM all the time about what we'd do and we always decided before it was night time of who we would kill and then send it right when night time came. Just a thought and a bit of a snap in your theory, mind you I don't think either of those 2 people are wolves anyway but I'm just saying, it's still possible they have a role of some sort.
Yeah, that's a possible flaw that I thought about. Still, Jackie was gone immediately once we lynched Mandie. PhocQ was gone a few minutes after. You'd think that they would at least wait until the next day to see what role Mandie was to make their decision, right? It's possible and they could have logged out early so we'd come to the conclusion that I did, but I'd think that they would have logged back in to PM Thian after that reveal as wolves.

Kenya wrote:
Now I don't really agree with your theory about Deet and Dragonldy. I feel that Deet was strongly defending Dragonldy and that's what makes me suspicious about those two being wolves together.
Tiffani being killed makes me put a little more suspicion on Deetster. Had Tiffani been alive, she'd be my second most likely suspect behind Dogdude, and there would be a few possible thirds if they were wolves. I even had narrowed it down to a few possible groups of 3 for the wolves and the sorcerers, but I can't come up with as clear groups of 3 now that she's dead. Boo. Sad Now I'm not quite as sure that the 2 wolves and 1 sorcerer are on my list of 5, so I'm a little more suspicious of Deetster than I was before. But he's not my main candidate right now.

Kenya wrote:
But I do agree that DogDude could very well be a wolf, but my problems with that situation is I always feel he's an opposite role than me because he usually is. Since I'm a villager that makes me feel he could be a wolf/sorcerer but I'm not positive, his name just always makes him seem wolf-like. Plus he is a lot more quiet this game and that's not like him at all. The change in behavior is what makes him seem the most wolfy.
Agreed.

Kenya wrote:
Also since you are in the accusing everyone mode, you should have at least made a point to make the odds of you being a wolf as well. I honestly do not feel you are but you aren't in the clear just because you say so Razz.
Yeah, again, my logic made a lot more sense before Tiffani was killed. I even thought I had it narrowed down to Dogdude-Tiffani-Dragontear being wolves when I saw this: Item of reference #2: https://2img.net/h/oi51.tinypic.com/zir3mg.png. I might re-think the odds and probabilities with a few different scenarios and assumptions to see if anything jumps out at me. And maybe I'll be able to statistically show how I'm a worse candidate to lynch than anyone else.
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 1:03 pm

*eye roll* I'm not a wolf. Brant is. I only read a few parts of Brant's word vomit, because honestly it's too long to read it all. Vote for me and you kill a villager, which is what Brant wants. Yes, he's long-winded and "seems" to make sense, but that's his strategy. Blind you all with SO much to read that he has to be correct!

Lynching Brant, again.

Kenya wrote:
Plus he is a lot more quiet this game and that's not like him at all. The change in behavior is what makes him seem the most wolfy.

My behavior has literally changed every single game. I've been a wolf once. My behavior should not be an indicator of my role. But I have a feeling I'll be lynched here, so I'll just sit back and laugh when you guys see my role revealed as "Villager". Well, actually Brant will be laughing the hardest since he's a wolf.


Last edited by Dogdude84 on Fri Oct 01, 2010 5:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 1:56 pm

Obviously I'm going to deny your accusations.

I'm not saying we have to follow my logic and lynch Dogdude. It's just the best idea I have right now, but I'm looking forward to further insight and reactions to see if we can come to a better conclusion.

We have 5 days; let's make use of them to gather more information rather than have a premature lynch.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 2:37 pm

Brant uses big words Rolling Eyes
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 2:56 pm

*pauses for a moment of silence for Tiffani and Mandie Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 609630 *

Sorry, Mandie. I felt like I was part of a group of piranhas in a last minute feeding frenzy last round. It seemed like a good idea at the time, anyway. Obviously, in retrospect, it wasn't. Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 735214


Okay, so in response to what's been posted so far and what we may have learned last round...

First of all, nice post, Brant! I like how you laid out all your points and evidence, lol.

Okay, so you are right that I'm not a wolf but that means nothing since everyone can, will and should say that in this game. I just wanted to get it out of the way so Dragontear doesn't have to say it. :p

Looks like you went to the "Momo School of Investigations" and I'm very impressed that you thought all of that out so thoroughly. I can only speak for myself but I only log in to post since I can read everything without logging in and I haven't been involved in any other board activities. Yeah, Kenya is right as far as saying wolves could have sent their picks before, I guess, but I would tend to agree with your logic. If Phoc was a wolf I doubt he would have decided on someone before seeing what Mandie's role was. I know I would have wanted to think things through more but that's just me.

I was confused as to why you doubled people up like Kenya was but now that you have explained that the bottom group is your finalized list I understand. I can see you are a fan of statistics, lol. I also see how that brings you to the conclusion that Dogdude is a wolf. I don't know, though. I have kind of been of the opinion that Dogdude has a role because of the way he has been playing. He seems to be protecting himself as if he has some sort of stake in this game. He was pretty flippant last game and I know we shouldn't compare behavior but I can't help it. Last game it didn't seem like he cared as much and he was, in fact, a villager. This time he seems more invested and that could be because he has some kind of a role. What that role is I don't know but I think he could be the bodyguard or seer as easily as he could be a wolf or sorcerer. He obviously suspects you so maybe he is the seer and has checked you out. That could explain why he was quick to vote you last time as well as this time... I guess I'd like to hear more from Dogdude as to why he feels so strongly you are a wolf. Right now I don't see it - unless he's the seer.

My opinion of Michael and Deetster are that they are both very intelligent so I won't rule them out as easily as you do. You have been extremely vocal and made very detailed, well-thought out posts so I guess I can lump you into that category with them. I didn't really expect any of you three by the end of last round because of how pro-village you all seem but you all have the mental capacity to carry out a very clever rouse. I just don't know if things are really that complicated, though.

In terms of Mandie's lynching, the fact that Deetster came up with the idea points to his possible guilt and the fact that Michael didn't vote her points to his possible innocence. There were 6 other people besides Deet who lynched her, though, and I'm guessing Tiffani and Dragonldy would have possibly voted if they were on. Also, Michael could have just decided to play it cool, figuring she'd be lynched without him.

I still think Dragonldy could be a wolf. Both Pete and Tiffani suspected her so getting them out of the way helps her. I don't know if she would be so obvious or if her fellow wolf would let her for that matter. I don't think that makes her innocent, though, by any means. I know that if we all just jumped back on either side of the Brant vs Dragonldy mentality at the beginning of this game, that's possibly one less vote against her.

Kenya still hasn't done anything that says wolf to me but I guess that in itself is smart. She could just play her sweet, funny self and we would just overlook her. Brant's statistics do point to her as a possibility. Still, I'm not ready to accuse her yet.

Termy is still on my list. He jumped back and forth from the Brant-lynchers to then saying he believed Brant, then he believed Dragonldy, then back to the Brant-lynchers last round lol. Then he was quick to jump on the Mandie-lynch group at the end. He made my head spin. Arrow It just seems like he may have jumped to Dragonldy if there was another vote but, then again, Phoc said he would lynch as the 7th if there were 6 votes and yet Termy didn't switch to Dragonldy so either he really doesn't think she is a wolf or he knows she is and he's a wolf, too. I was willing to lynch him for inactivity before with the possibility he was a wolf but then decided he wasn't active enough to be one. Now I'm thinking maybe he was protecting his partner.

Dragontear is quirky and cute. He was quick to want to lynch someone - in fact he said he wants to lynch anyone. That sounds like what a wolf would want but I doubt they would state it that obviously. It makes me think he is just having fun and isn't a wolf.

I'm not ready to make a vote yet but I think I would lean toward Dragonldy or Termy. I think they could be a pair and finding one could lead us to the other.
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:09 pm

did ya hear that im quirky and cute Smile, haha... R.I.P Mandie and Tiff *wipes eyes*. thats too bad but for some reason i thought that the wolfs were gonna target me, was getting worried. its hard to say who are wolves. but i dont think jackie is a wolf anymore, i am starting to think maybee Dragonldy, and deetster because of how fast it seemed that they put up mandie. and she was just an innocent villager... if we keep on lynching the innocent were gonna become wolf food. but im not going to vote so quick this time. im gonna wait and see what other players have to say, and sit back and relax for a little bit haha.
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:11 pm

I do agree with you Jackie about Dragonldy.. I just think the fact that some people wouldn't vote her.. makes her seem suspicious.. like deet and termy wouldn't vote her but yet they were willing to vote Mandie.. That makes it seem very suspicious but at the same time the wolves could have killed tiffany to get us to go after dragonldy this time or want us to double think this into not going after her. Oh geez my head hurts now.

Also Jackie.. by now you should know I"m not good at keeping having a role a secret.. I mean look how I told everyone the one game I was a wolf LOL!
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:13 pm

Yeah, I'm seeing the logic towards possible Deetster-Dragonldy and Dragonldy-Termy connections, even though Dragonldy did initially vote for Termy last round, but still feel like my logic towards lynching Dogdude applies.

1) Dogdude
2) Dragonldy
3) Termy
4) Deetster
5) Dragontear
6) Kenya
7) Michael
Cool PhocQ
9) Jackie

is my current list of who I am suspicious about from most suspicious to least suspicious.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:16 pm

LOL at me being more suspicious than Michael when yet I defended your ass all last round.. why would I do that if I was a wolf.. I would have just lynched ya with the rest of em and not gave a damn. I really feel that the wolves are people that tried to vote Brant. Unless DogDude is the Seer...
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:17 pm

I think the wolves would want me to stay in the game last round because if they killed off some of my support in the night who wasn't amongst them (like they did for Tiffani) then I would be an easy lynch the next day to keep them safe.

I hope the seer (if they're still alive) has gathered something useful at this point.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:19 pm

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't want you in the game. I know you give reasons of why they would but I wouldn't. Just as I wouldn't want anyone smart still in the game.. like Jackie/PhocQ. People like that are people I would get rid of for sure if I was a wolf. Because why keep around the smart players that would figure me out. It would not make sense to me.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:22 pm

I'm defending Michael now. Talk about irony. Laughing

I've said this before, but I don't see why he'd lead such a charge for me if he's a wolf because it'll just be revealed that I'm a villager. He'd be blamed for leading the charge whereas Cam is significantly more suspicious in my eyes because he jumped on board with it, maybe with the wolf logic of lynching me that you mentioned, yet he wouldn't be blamed if it failed and the revelation that I was a villager came.

For the record, I don't think you're a wolf and don't think Michael's a wolf. But I tried to avoid using gut instinct in the statistics, and there's still a theoretical chance you could be a wolf. I don't think so, though.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:24 pm

LOL well I'm not a wolf and there is as much chance that I'm a wolf as there is for you being a wolf. BUT I feel like you are trying to push me away from defending you by putting me as more likely a wolf over Michael. When Michael will probably still try to get ya lynched whenever he comes around and I'm starting to see his logic.. oddly enough. I just don't think it's wise to try to push away your biggest supporter lol.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:31 pm

I'm not trying to push you away. I posted those statistics earlier, which do show there's a chance that you could be a wolf --- even though the death of Tiffani has helped show me that several of the assumptions are likely flawed, but I have been defending you by saying I don't think it's likely that you're a wolf.

If Michael's a wolf, I'm trying to get into his head and figure out why he's doing what he's doing, and I just can't think of why he'd be playing this way. So I put him down with the two people who I don't think there's much chance of being a wolf based on my own judgment plus the online tracker. Then there's you, and I impulsively think you're innocent but don't have many statistics to show it. Then there are the 5 candidates who could very well be wolves, in the order I think they're guilty.

This is the strangest game, and I give the wolves so much credit for utilizing the opportunity to put the target on my back to save them.
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:42 pm

Brant wrote:
Yeah, I'm seeing the logic towards possible Deetster-Dragonldy and Dragonldy-Termy connections, even though Dragonldy did initially vote for Termy last round, but still feel like my logic towards lynching Dogdude applies.

You're right that Dragonldy initially voted for Termy so that makes me push her down a bit below Termy and Deet on my list (this is my list that will remain only in my head for fear of creating a "Safelist 3.0" lol). It could have just been a ploy, of course, but I tend to think she wouldn't take a chance since Termy was definitely in danger.

I could see a Deetster-Termy connection more since they both voted Brant. They are also both on opposite sides of the original famed "safe-list", as Michael pointed out his suspects would probably be. Also, Deet was quick to want to lynch Mandie and didn't Termy show up in the nick of time? (I do realize I was also quick to want to lynch her because of our time constraints but Deet came up with the plan when I really thought it would end up a stalemate.) Also, maybe his support of Michael is just to make him look less wolfish.

Kenya, lol at you always saying you would kill me if you were a wolf. Maybe that's why I was sure to call you "sweet." Wink Also, just the fact that Brant is pushing you away and defending Michael makes him seem more innocent in my eyes. Why would he point to one of his supporters when he really may need them? It just doesn't make sense to me.
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Brant
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 3:57 pm

Termy choosing to lynch Mandie did confuse me, along with his random vote swapping. Deetster also voted for Termy last round initially, but he retracted his vote before Termy could get the majority of votes. Which may have been another calculated risk to take the target off his back. Or it may have been logical gameplay. I don't know. I see the pros and cons of lynching Mandie for both villagers and wolves.

One other thing I will point out is that I'm 100% certain that the seer won't reveal himself/herself and admit that I'm a wolf this round. Because if they're still alive and checked, then they will find out I'm not a wolf.


Last edited by Brant on Fri Oct 01, 2010 4:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 4:18 pm

Termy's behavior ALWAYS confuses me.. lol he just makes odd decisions.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 4:46 pm

Ah, yay, now I'm being targetted. I'll address somethings now.

I have been saying the whole time repeatedly that I am very suspicious of a Termy-Dragontear buddying, and have stressed that of those two, Termy should go, because he seems less helpful. So, if someone wants to lynch him over most people, I would hop right on board that.

The same thing goes for Dragonldy. I kinda suspect her less, because I personally wasn't seeing her as paired as I saw Dragontear-Termy, but if you guys are going to put me and her in a couple, the same way that I put Dragontear/Termy in a couple, and might have the mentality I had in that ONE OF US TWO should go, clearly, I believe I should stay, and as a villager, I think I could contribute more. I even noted last round that her defenses weren't really solid at all, but I just felt there was more reason to suspect Brant of being a wolf.

I think Brant could be a wolf still, but that seems to have passed, and only Dogdude is really saying that now, which, I think Dogdude is just being reflexive because he is being targetted.

I want to kind of vote to lynch Dogdude too, and honestly see how that works out, because Brants theories did make sense, but maybe I just get convinced too easily by long-winded logical speeches like Dogdude says we are being manipulated by. However, if you aren't going to contribute much solid ideas, then you're not being a very good villager, and it's worth risking you than risking those who are thinking...but if we have two clever wolves, by that thought process we will just screw ourselves by lynching villagers who aren't helping at all.

Now in regards to the quieter, and less "ranting" player like Termy and the Dragons, at least unlike Mandie, they are here, and can vote. If I wanted to do some real damage IF I WERE A WOLF, I would have "reluctantly" flipped over to Dragonldy, and said to Phoc, "Hey man, we should really just do a lynch!" I instead decided to take out the villager who really seemed to not be here at all, or more accurately, I hoped that villager was a wolf, and at the least I knew Mandie would help us the least as villagers.

If you guys need me to prove I'm not with Dragonldy, then I will lynch her with you guys, but Dragonldy I think will hop on to vote for us against the wolves, and I just don't suspect her personally.

At this point, I mainly suspect Dogdude and Brant. It sounds weird cause they're targetting each other, but I more thinking that the wolf is ONE of them. I think if we figure out which one, we'd have a better shot at piecing who they're probably working with, and who we can trust.

I do think if the Dogdude lynch doesn't work out, we really really have to think about Brant. Then if the Dogdude lynch does work out, we probably have to think about people who have been quieter, and Michael!

I think at best Brant's theory solidly cancelled out Jackie/Phoc, and I wasn't really suspected either of those two anyways, but that's a good find there. However, I think him revealing that is something as a villager I wouldn't do UNTIL Jackie/Phoc are actually targetted, in case the wolves want to kill those two off in the next rounds...he basically opened a door that no one but Dragontear cracked admitting it was "random", and now they could be the target of the wolves, when he could have kept that in the back of his mind, because that's almost solid proof....and idk, I would have saved that until they were actually targetted.

Now though, we know we should trust them, so that's what's important.

I think lynching Dogdude is a good idea for now, but I don't want to vote to lynch him really because I think people are thinking of me being associated with people that aren't Dogdude, and this could just be used to try to push me in with the Termy/Dragontear/Dragonldy crowd. It might be nicer to see what those individuals want to do, before I act, or to see if anyone has any solid claims of why to target any of those three, or anyone else (Kenya has been slipping under the radar pretty nicely), and then I'll probably cast my vote for Dogdude if nothing changes.
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Doggerz
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 5:49 pm

Deet's point about Kenya slipping under the radar, and her own point about me always being an opposite role from her makes me suspicious of Kenya Evil

I retract my vote from Brant.

Voting to lynch Kenya.


Last edited by Dogdude84 on Sat Oct 02, 2010 8:56 am; edited 1 time in total
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Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 Empty
PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 7:09 pm

Um.. Brant... in your screen print of the member list why do you have a tab called "villager recipes?" Are you making villager stew? :p
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