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 Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3

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Dragonbunny
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Brant
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 7:33 pm

Deetster wrote:
I think at best Brant's theory solidly cancelled out Jackie/Phoc, and I wasn't really suspected either of those two anyways, but that's a good find there. However, I think him revealing that is something as a villager I wouldn't do UNTIL Jackie/Phoc are actually targetted, in case the wolves want to kill those two off in the next rounds...he basically opened a door that no one but Dragontear cracked admitting it was "random", and now they could be the target of the wolves, when he could have kept that in the back of his mind, because that's almost solid proof....and idk, I would have saved that until they were actually targetted.
I don't think calling out Jackie and PhocQ as definite villagers was a bad thing. If I'm right, it puts the idea out there that they can't be the bodyguard or the seer. I think the wolves would be more interested in killing the bodyguard and the seer at this point than two villagers, although who really knows what their true motive is for how they kill. Whatever the case, I think it's important those those safe don't end up targeting each other. It's vital that we lynch a wolf/sorcerer today or tomorrow, or the wolves win. So I'm bringing up any information that I can find.

I also believe that if the seer has information about the identity of a wolf (for instance, if someone we think is safe is a wolf and all of our theories are wrong), it's time to step up and reveal that because after today, we only have one day left to figure this out.

Deetster's logic sounds fine in my head, and I'm still thinking he's probably more innocent than guilty.

Jackie wrote:
Um.. Brant... in your screen print of the member list why do you have a tab called "villager recipes?" Are you making villager stew? :p
Just checking if anyone's actually paying attention. Smile

I also really want to hear Michael's thoughts.
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MikeNIkers
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 8:17 pm

Well good morning (in game terms) guys. It’s an unfortunate we lost a villager with Mandie, although I’m not surprised she was one, and Tiffani to me is another very interesting decision for the wolves to have killed. I think Tiffani, like Pete, was one of the people initially in the middle, not a safe lister, yet not heavily suspected either.

Yesterday, Tiffani initially voted for Termy, acknowledging that he probably wasn’t a wolf but she didn’t want to miss the vote again. Then, when it appeared he might not be leaving, she retracted her vote, but acknowledged she didn’t think either were wolves. Kenya asked her if she’d be willing to vote someone else, maybe Dragonldy640, who Tiffani had previously noted to be suspicious. Tiffani agreed and voted Dragonldy, and within the next 10 minutes, Kenya, Brant, and DragonTear had all retracted their votes for Termy and voted for Dragonldy640. Note this is the second time DragonTear had switched his vote, for first he randomly voted Jackie but then went after Termy after Brant’s name was brought up… To me it seems like they were so desperate to keep Brant in that they would’ve voted anyone, and would’ve catered to pretty much any random name Tiffani threw out so long as it improved their chances of garnering a majority.

Now they of course weren’t the only ones to change their votes. Jackie submitted a vote for Dragonldy a couple hours later, but even just taking the time to read through everything rather than making a rash decision as soon as the name was brought up makes me significantly less suspicious of her. Termy did switch his vote to Dragonldy and then back to Brant which was odd, but really I thought that was just evidence of his indecisiveness. Unlike DragonTear’s random switch, he didn’t seem to be joining forces with any particular group to aggressively get someone lynched or stop someone from being lynched. Then there was the Mandie lynch… I’m not even going to bother with that right now lol.

I’m going to be quite frank and say I’m still suspicious of Brant. I mean maybe I’m having a problem where I’m so fixated on him that I’m not seeing the big picture, but really the more I look the more evidence I see of him being a wolf. And while it’s flattering to now be included on his safe list, that doesn’t make me any more confident about him being a villager. I mean if I were him and a wolf as I suspect he is, I would’ve done the exact same thing as by many standards it makes him appear more innocent and as though he’s looking out for the best interest of the village.

Let me just point something out here guys: we only have 10 people left. With three votes, they only need 2 more people on their side to keep themselves safe, and 1 more beyond that to lynch a villager. If today we miss lynch and they kill another villager by morning, tomorrow, they will only need 1 more person to save themselves in a vote, and then another to have a villager lynched. Assuming they successfully get a kill in that night, the next day it will be three villagers and three for the wolf/sorcerer team, and they’ll have won the game. Point being here, we can’t waste days by lynching people for being less helpful villagers. We HAVE to making sincere attempts at finding wolves and getting them out.

I’m sure Brant’s done the math on this as well and knows he only needs two more miss lynches to win. I believe his plan, if he’s in fact a wolf, is to lynch someone off his Potential Wolves List, kill someone off his new Safe List at night, lynch someone off the Potential Wolves list the following day, and kill whoever he wants the last night to win the game. The only way this plan could go awry is if the bodyguard steps in and correctly predicts who will be killed, saving them. Of course, that’s only if the bodyguard is still alive…

It’s interesting though because if Brant is indeed a wolf, his teammates could’ve been placed no either list, Brant of course knowing only the top two people he targeted over the next two days would matter as afterwards the game would be over.

And I do realize there’s still a chance Brant isn’t a wolf at all in which case my theories of how he operates are basically useless, but to me this still seems like the most logical angle to pursue. I’ve mentioned in the past that I was suspicious of Kenya and DragonTear as a pair, and their actions last round, where it appeared they’d lynch whoever to keep Brant in, only makes me more suspicious. And again it’s not just the fact that you wanted to keep him because obviously you weren’t the only ones, but that you were both [i]so quick[/b] to change your votes when you saw a possibility for someone else to be the target. Yet of the two, I still for some reason find myself wanting to believe Kenya. Like I feel there’s a good chance she defended Brant out of either friendship or honestly believing his side of the story, rather than to protect her wolfy partner in crime.

I have lots more to say and do plan to make a post analyzing all the players as I did last time, but at the moment I’m a little pressed for time and should be fairly busy until Monday. Let me just say I suspect Brant and DragonTear the most, and at this point I don’t think I’d be comfortable voting for anyone else this round. However, part of the reason I suspect them both is because of what I see is them covertly working together, and if one was lynched and turned out to be a villager, I would really have to reevaluate my opinions of the other.

So for now, I’ll cast my vote. I’m open to much more discussion though, and if someone has irrefutable proof that I’m deluding myself into thinking someone is a wolf who isn’t, I would love to hear it.

I vote to lynch Brant.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 8:29 pm

Ugh, lol.

I feel like at this rate, and my mental thinking, like...based on everything, and how I think things stand, if we lynch someone, and they ARENT a wolf, I think we're just gonna go right on to kill Brant in the next round, lol.

It would make a WHOLE lot of sense for Brant to right now convince Jackie/Phoc he figured out they are villagers, and he wants to protect them, and to reveal them. If he has them following him wherever he wants, and then is continuing to try to not make us who targetted him think he totally doesn't suspect us at wolves, then he could skate through.

I feel like this Brant suspicion is just not going to die away, lol, and it is definitely noteworthy that there were so many people that truly seemed to refuse to vote Brant.

This is really really a tough decision...
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 8:35 pm

Oh dear. I think Michael's too fixated on killing me and working his mind around the fact that I'm a wolf to help a united vote for a potential wolf this round. -_-

I still think we should lynch Dogdude though. I don't believe that PhocQ's said anything today. I'm also interested because Dragonldy and Termy have both been here and haven't said anything either. I wanted to get my theory out fast to see reactions. And I am slightly optimistic that we have a seer at this point with something valuable, so hopefully they choose to speak up if that's the case and it can help unite the village.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 9:03 pm

Or maybe the seer didn't do their job this round Razz

In any case, it could be seen as killing the "less helpful villagers", but since you would have me believe you aren't a wolf Brant, and I don't suspect Jackie/Phoc, and I don't suspect myself, lol, it's like...It kinda might make more sense over these next two lynches to knock off some of the "less helpful villagers", who hopefully will be wolves.

Dogdude felt fine voting Kenya, and that intrigues me, as I would have seen her being a wolf with him, if he were one. Her, or one of the..."less helpful villagers/wolves?"
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 9:12 pm

I've been posting a lot today, and this will be my last post for the night. It's been a weird post-rain day with lots of flooding here.

I've stated the deadline thing that Michael bolded like 5 times between today and yesterday. I very well acknowledge that, and I've considered committing suicide in a game sense during the day to help you all unite. But then you'd just have 1 chance left, and I don't know if you'd be able to figure out a wolf/sorcerer in that day. I don't want to die for nothing.

I believe that lynching is fundamentally necessary here over no lynching. Even though Dogdude's my top candidate, I would be willing to compromise and lynch someone else (yes, even Dragontear, Michael) if that's necessary for a united village vote. I feel like villagers here need to open their minds completely and be willing to compromise because we obviously can't afford no lynches. Interestingly, I actually suspect Kenya slightly more after Dogdude voted for her and wonder if he did that to throw us off. I don't know. I don't want to lynch Kenya at all, though. Definitely Dogdude before her. Then we have a little cushion to re-evaluate to find the next wolf/sorcerer if Dogdude turns out to be one.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptyFri Oct 01, 2010 9:43 pm

Ya, i leaning close to dogdude too. and as for kenya, i do suspect she is something other then a villager, but i dont think she's a wolf maybee seer or bodyguard?. day 3....good ol day 3 lol, seems like everyone has their own opinions right now. some people are after brant. some people already switched their vote and this thread is only been open for one day. now i dont feel so bad lol :D, but im deffiently gonna wait this time to vote, and hopefully i wont have to throw it around like i day last day.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 1:19 am

So long Tiffani and Mandie.

Sorry guys I been crazy busy. There is a lot to go over here and a lot of very good points made by everyone. I'll be back when I have a bit more time and can go over all this stuff.

One thing I don't get is where and when did this whole Michael vs Brant start? I thought Brant didn't even think Michael was a wolf. lol
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 3:48 am

Alright so I don't understand why I became suspicious? LOL but okay if you would like to kill another villager feel free to lynch me but it won't help anyone out but the wolves. Smile

I feel I have to clear something up because I'm sick of hearing this OMG DragonTear and Kenya are connected.. which is true but not in the way that you guys are thinking.. for those that haven't pieced it together yet.. DragonTear is my boyfriend and he lives with me. I told him I posted again and to check out the thread so that he could make his own opinions and decide if he'd change his vote or not. He does not know my role and I do not know his role. I know I"m not a wolf, I have no idea whether he is one or not. We are respecting the rules of the game of course. Just as I do with anyone else that are my friends in this game that I talk to outside of this game. But yes part of my defensiveness towards him at the start of the game was purely because I told him about this game and asked him to try it out and wanted him to have a chance. Since then I haven't been defending him because I do suspect he has a role of some sort, I just haven't been able to figure it out yet or figure out his gameplay.

I do agree with Michael though, that this round we can't be trying to target someone based on their activity level.. because that has just been helping the wolves out. Which those wolves are probably the more active people anyway. I'm also starting to think my thoughts on Deet being a wolf have went out the window.. But I do think that Termy/Dragonldy, at least one of them is a wolf.. along with one of us more active players.. which one.. I'm not sure. All I can be sure about is it's not me lol.

DogDude was sure quick to switch his vote to me though.. which is kind of suspicious since nobody else has voted for for me. I wasn't fully feeling him being suspicious until he did that but to each his own I guess.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 8:15 am

Kenya, that's cool that your boyfriend is playing!

Hi Kenya's boyfriend (Dragontear)! I love you

I'm suspicious of everyone, especially the more active people. They definitely could be wolves and are trying to make other people look suspicious.

I also have been very busy taking care of my granddaughter. My daughter is in the hospital having spinal surgery for the second time. Things are a little crazy at my house. When the babies taking a nap is the only time I have to eat or get on the computer. Sometimes eating is more important...lol. She sleeps all night, so I do have the nights to get online too.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 8:56 am

He's your EVIL boyfriend, Kenya Razz

Dun dun dun..........

Kenya's defense makes me want to switch back to Brant though. Plus Brant has been doing a LOT more talking, which to me is indicative of wolf (at least for him).

I retract my vote for Kenya.

Lynching Brant.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 9:29 am

Dear remaining wolves and/or sorcerer,

Please join Dogdude and Michael and vote to lynch me so that if I am lynched this round, it will be revealed who you are. Or if Dogdude's lynched and revealed to be a wolf, we'll figure it out as well.

Yours sincerely,
Brant

---

In all seriousness, I think the wolves HAVE to protect Dogdude and vote to lynch me or will try to change the vote to another target with a close vote coming up assuming that he is indeed a wolf. So we're going to get some really interesting information if we split the vote between me and him and one of us is lynched. Therefore I am encouraging the villagers to vote for Dogdude in order to force the sides to be revealed.

I still don't really think Michael's a wolf, but he'll probably side with the 2 of them and the sorcerer, which makes it necessary for the 6 villagers to stick together to have a 6-4 majority.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 1:42 pm

Awww that's cute that we have real life lovers in this game...and they each suspect the other one in some aspect, lol...



LET'S GET EM!





JK JK ! Seriously, though - Kenya, thanks for being honest and I don't think it's a big deal. I am sure you wouldn't play a game like this and break the rules - it wouldn't be very fun. I also don't think we should look at either of you any differently than we would have before....just maybe look past the cute pie jokes passing between you two lol. Oh and please, if you could refrain from posting together in bed... Just don't need the visual ya know? :p

As far as Brant's plea to the wolves/sorcerer, isn't it a bit premature, Brant? I don't know that 1 vote each for you and Dogdude constitutes lines being drawn in the sand yet and I've seen a few other names come up. I guess I am surprised that you are this defensive so early and I'd rather have you go back to your logical posts about who you suspect and why. Got any more exhibits to enter into evidence lol? It's only day 2 of this round and I think a lot is still up in the air. I would like more info, at least. I don't know that I would be casting a vote for either you or Dogdude but I am definitely open to hearing more.

Michael said he was going to post more, as did Phoc. Termy has yet to be heard from...why does that not surprise me? Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 35478
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 2:22 pm

Dogdude and Michael have both voted for me, so it's technically 2-1.

I actually don't want the vote to end this early, and I'm not deadset on Dogdude by any means although I'd like it. I'll compromise with another suspicious candidate if we have to in order to force a lynch. I just really do think I'm right and that at least two of the top candidates (Dogdude, Dragonldy, Termy, etc) are wolves or a wolf and the sorcerer. The third, I have a feeling will be someone surprising like Michael maybe, but I believe that calling them out and putting them on a suspicion list to get people talking about them will hopefully lead to the evil roles doing something rash that helps give them away. Maybe someone will fake being a seer hoping the real seer's dead. Maybe the real seer will then speak up, and we'll identify a liar. I'm just hoping my bold approach will cause the wolves to fall apart. Me being lynched isn't necessarily a bad thing since it will help unite the village and I half-expect to die anyway, so I'm not holding back at all.

In my eyes, Dogdude's reaction to my logic leading to him being the best candidate to lynch is a wolf slip-up. He said it was long nonsense and voted to lynch me, hoping others would agree with him and join in. When people actually seemed to believe me, he changed his approach and voted for Kenya thinking that people may be more suspicious of her than me. Then Michael came back and accused me of being a wolf, so he switched back to the strategy of lynching me seeing Kenya was starting to be cleared. If Michael's not a wolf/sorcerer, the wolves/sorcerer only need to recruit 1 other villager to have 5 and make it impossible to do anything this round. And I think that's what they're hoping to do. So I'm calling them out to get them scrambling. I hope.

Since it's Dogdude's birthday, I'll now request that no one else votes to lynch him until at least tomorrow though. I'll also try to add some more logic into my posts, although I've got some free time this weekend, so I'll probably continue my random reflexiveness as I wait for interesting posts by other players. It's possible that the wolves are being quiet though because they don't know what's going to happen and they're scared of slipping since I've called them out. It's interesting to watch, and we'll have to see.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 2:24 pm

<3 Brant. Thanks, haha. It's my birthday, no being mean to me today! banana

cheers

*turns into a wolf and does the thriller dance, encouraging everyone else to join in*
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 3:38 pm

Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 Happy_10

Happy Birthday Dogdude!
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 5:13 pm

what Drgontear and kenya are in a relationship?, news to me.... haha. and dont worrie jackie we wont post anything while in bed Wink...haha. and happy brithday dogdude!!!, have lotsa fun
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySat Oct 02, 2010 11:07 pm

Thanks Donna and Kenya's bf Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySun Oct 03, 2010 10:55 am

DEADLINE: 6th October 2010 @ 23:59 EST

Votes:


1 Vote of 6: Dogdude84 (brant)
2 vote of 6: Brant (Michael!, Dogdude84)

Pending Votes:
Termy, Dragonldy640, PhocQ, Deetster, Kenya, Jackie, Dragontear

HI guys! FYI: my Modem at home is being as slimey as some of these wolves we got going around here in ORGPlanet. No worries though, I will be updating as best as I can. I think the issue might be resolved in 2 to 3 days time however I still do have my work internet to assist in updating.

Thakns for all the patience guys.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySun Oct 03, 2010 11:03 am

Alright, well, I guess i'll reawaken this, lol.

Soo, I'm thinking this much we know.

Jackie and Phoc, are good. This has been solidly proven. I think a good idea is for you two to just completely JUMP on board with a plan, and then see if that works out. Then NEXT round, if you guys killed a villager, I think you guys need to make sure to kill someone that you voted with, since these people are probably the ones that led you astray.

I mean it's definitely possible that it won't work out like that, but maybe that's a good idea.

That or we really come up with more solid ideas of who are wolves. I want to see what you guys are going to do, and I will vote based on that probably. You are the only two that I know I'm not being purposely misled by.
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Brant
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySun Oct 03, 2010 11:52 am

It'll probably work out that Dogdude and I are both villagers, and then the one who is lynched has supporters in the form of wolves and the one who isn't lynched has supporters in the form of villagers. Or the wolves could be scattered between the groups laughing that the target isn't on one of them. Thus causing two villagers to be lynched and the wolves to win. Laughing

In all seriousness, I do support this idea. If I'm lynched, you realize my ideas don't have evil intentions behind them. If I'm not lynched and Jackie/PhocQ actually support my side, I mainly encourage Dogdude to be lynched with Dragonldy and Termy in either order as backup as I do think the wolves and sorcerer could be right in that list. Hopefully the right pick would be chosen, but I really do think it would be with Dogdude.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySun Oct 03, 2010 3:58 pm

Well, I've kind of laid out who I think but here are some new things I've considered:

Last round we had the tie between Brant/Dragonldy and I think we all thought it was going to end that way until Deet said why don't we vote Mandie? I jumped on board and I'm not excusing myself from this at all but what can we take away from it? It's possible that the wolves/sorcerer were definitely part of that vote. So, looking at that we have:

Jackie - I know I'm not a wolf Smile

Phoc - I don't believe he has a role due to Brant's investigative skills, plus I know Phoc and he would be more into this game if he had a role, I think. I do know he's been really busy, too, but I still feel confident he is innocent.

Dragontear - He was quick to say he just wanted to lynch someone (lol) and I don't think he'd be that obvious if he were a wolf.

Brant - He still strikes me as a villager who is intent on figuring this out and proving his innocence. He obviously spent a lot of time and energy after last round trying to figure out who the wolves/sorcerer are and I don't think he would have told us what he knew about the log-in list if he was a wolf because he may have needed to point to Phoc or I if he was in a jam. Deet points out that it puts us both in danger and I agree that now I feel like I'm playing on borrowed time (thanks a LOT, Brant Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 167302 ) but, then again, I always feel vulnerable in this game because I always get killed. Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 735214 *hint hint if the bodyguard is still alive I wouldn't mind some protection in the nighttime Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 204853 *

Kenya - Phoc mentioned that Brant has this "aura of innocence" surrounding him after last game and I guess that's kind of how I feel about Kenya. She just seems sincere in what she says and other than being UTR and joining in to vote Mandie I don't think she has done anything to seem wolfy to me. Also, she was on Brant's side last time and I tend to think the wolves were not.

Termy - He was the biggest flip-flopper and while that's not bad in itself since I know it gets confusing with no hard evidence, I saw his moves as semi-suspicious last round because he took his vote off Brant but then instead of switching to Dragonldy he said he believed Brant but then put his vote back on him. That was very strange and I don't understand why he did it at all unless it was to make himself look like a confused villager. Plus, he never really showed up until he was in danger and really hung on to the Brant vote last time until presented with another option which was a sure lynch. I really thought there was a connection between him and Deet somehow. Or, could he have been desperate to save Dragonldy? If so, why move from Brant at all until he had the Mandie option? He has still yet to show up here and my gut tells me if he gets a vote he might.

Deetster - I still have my doubts because he really wanted to lynch Brant but then spearheaded the lynch for Mandie. He said he would switch to Dragonldy if Phoc would but then withdrew it. It could have been fake and maybe he was counting on the fact that Phoc wanted to be last, lol, and wouldn't have voted 6th. PS - you guys need to stop trying to be the alpha males here and just take a position, lol. This wanting to be the last one to vote is counter-productive. Whether Brant or Dragonldy are wolves or not, a lynch for either of them could have really told us something so maybe the Mandie lynch was to throw people off. The fact that he refused to vote Dragondy but was fine with voting Mandie makes me suspicious. I also think that pointing out how Phoc or I will probably now be the next to be killed sets it up so he can do it without suspicion next round. Maybe saying he trusts us is to make himself look innocent, too?

So those are all the Mandie-voters in order of how innocent I think they are. I don't think the non-Mandie-lynchers are off the hook though:

Michael - Out of this group I think I suspect him least because he seems to be careful. He observes, adopts a position, explains his thoughts, settles on a target and sticks to it. The only thing is I think the object of his suspicions (Brant) is innocent. I also think the fact that he didn't vote Mandie doesn't excuse him because he wasn't needed to lynch her. BUT, if he would have changed his vote it would be completely out of character from how he has been playing. It makes me really think he's innocent, just wrong.

Dragonldy - I voted for her last time and I still think she could be a wolf. I look at the pairings given by Brant and they do make sense. Dogdude really defended her, as did Termy and Deet. Obviously all four of those people can't be guilty, though, and I think Dogdude has a role so there could be something to that. I do think that her defensiveness was completely in character for her, though. I don't see that she is doing anything different than she has in past games but she is always suspected because of her style of play. I also think she would have voted Mandie if she were on because she seems to bandwagon a lot, but voting Brant is perfectly logical since of course she would want to save herself and you can't really blame her for that. It's another example of how the quieter ones are harder to figure out, though.

Dogdude
- He didn't vote Mandie which makes him look like he could be innocent but then he didn't need to once there were 7 so who knows if he would have? I do think if Brant is innocent it really points to Dogdude being a wolf but then again, if Brant is lynched and found to be innocent, Dogdude would probably be my #1 suspect so why is he so quick to vote Brant? I guess he could blame it on Michael. There's also the Dragonldy connection. He was very adamant in defending her so if one of them is proven to be a wolf then it points to the other. It could also be too obvious, though. I think there is the most evidence out of this group to point to him. I do also think he could be protecting a role like Seer or Bodyguard and if he is he would definitely not want to let that be known and it would really suck if we killed our seer/bodyguard.

So, this is what I am leaning toward right now. Of my top two suspects from each group (Deet & Dogdude) I suspect Dogdude the most. I don't know if anyone else is feeling Deet, but I still think he's a viable option.

I do think lynching either Dogdude or Brant would really tell us the most. If one is guilty is clears the other. If one is innocent it points to the other. That may be too simplistic, though, and I really have a feeling that Brant is innocent. I also have this feeling Dogdude has a role. I'm just not sure if it's a good role or an evil role. He's either a wolf with Termy, Deet or Dragonldy and is going after Brant because he feels that Michael has a lot of clout and it's the most likely lynch, or he's the seer and has checked Brant out and knows he's guilty, or he's the bodyguard and just really suspects Brant. I keep going back and forth between these theories so I would love to hear something that would convince me more one way or another.

Oh, also, the people who I think benefit from killing Tiffani the most are: Dragonldy (since Tiffani wanted to lynch her), Michael, Deet, Termy, Dogdude (since they wanted to lynch Brant and at least 2 still do - it takes away one of his supporters). The person who I think benefits least is Brant (since she was on his side).

Those are my thoughts right now but I still want to see what Phoc says and I am hoping Termy will post, also.

Oh and Happy Birthday, late, Dogdude! Sorry I didn't wish you a happy bday yesterday. I did make you some cupcakes, though...



Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 9huko1



Hehe enjoy.
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Mr Phoc
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySun Oct 03, 2010 5:40 pm

Brant has so far provided the best evidence as far as coming up with some sort of theory. I don't agree with Dogdude that he plays every game different because he seems to be acting the exact same way this game as last. Even the fact he simply votes for the person who voted for him first, as he did to me last game. Problem is, he was a villager last game. So if he is acting the same then maybe he is just a regular villager again. Hard to say, really.

IF Brant is a wolf, he is certainly putting himself out there more than we normally see the wolves do. Last game the wolves almost won because they were so quiet and sneaky about what they were doing. Also I think the wolves (or anyone with a role really) would be very aware of what they are saying and how people will take it. Regular villagers aren't usually all that carefull about how they word what they say, while role players would always be worried about it with every post they make. Or at least that's kinda how I would be. So I don't really thnk Brant fits that mold. Doesn't mean he can't be a wolf, just the evidence would make me lean to him being a villager more than wolf.

For me, there is nobody that I don't have any worries about. Usually I will use a little bit of process of elimination to weed a few suspects out and then see who of the remaining have the biggest percentage of being a wolf. I also like to see who has the biggest benefit of lynching and finding out one way or another. Like if we lynched Brant and he was a wolf, that would most likely clear up Michael's name and vice versa. We obviously need to lynch a wolf soon but I would also like to be able to gain more information than just whether that 1 person is a wolf. Cause we would still have a wolf and Sorcerer to contend with.

If we lynch a wolf, we will most likely know a few people who aren't wolves (those that lynched the wolf). But what is trickier is finding someone who even if they turn out to be a villager, we learn something to help us in the next round. I'm not sure if we do learn much if we lynched Dogdude and he turns out to be a regular villager.


Now, all that being said. When I re-read my post it sounds very simlar to Brant's logic. So that can't help but make me feel that he isn't a wolf. And IF he ISNT a wolf, then he is probably our strongest villager. So even tho I don't know if I really want to lynch Dogdude, I feel like our strongest villager is in danger and I should do something to help keep him safe. I am still very open to lynching someone other than dogdude but for now I will vote for him if for no other reason than to help keep Brant safe.

I vote to lynch Dogdude.
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySun Oct 03, 2010 9:49 pm

I agree with that logic and I also realized that if Dogdude was the seer and knew Brant was a wolf he wouldn't have switched his vote to Kenya like he did. So, unless I see a reason to change...


I vote to lynch Dogdude
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PostSubject: Re: Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3   Season 5 - Werewolf - Day 3 - Page 2 EmptySun Oct 03, 2010 10:30 pm

I love all this random logic about people thinking I'm a wolf. If I am indeed lynched this round, please lynch Brant next, kthx.
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