Mafia - Paradise - Day 3

Since I'm still alive, I'll add the following:

Let's assume I die, which is obviously going to happen. I have no "quality" role to convince you to save me. Then Tiffani dies in the night. That means you'll be without a prostitute and down to final 8. Since 3 Mafia members are left, that means you need to get the next lynch right, or the Mafia will win at final 6 with 3/6 people if the Doctor can't save the next night's target. Good luck.

I'm still leaning towards the people who are in the middle, posting enough to survive, but not posting A LOT as my top targets.

I agree that more discussion here could do us some good. I really see no reason to not lynch Brant based on what we went through last night phase; I agree he is the only target we can reason to lynch, but I really think we are wasting our day phase here. For how quick it is going, I can't help but think that perhaps we have the mafia controlling this round more than we want to believe. If Brant is indeed mafia, I would totally count on seeing a mafia member jumping on this vote as quickly as possible to keep all townie discussion to a minimum: Brant is going to die this round. If he ends up being innocent, the same applies, except I would guess only one of the mafia is in on the vote. This is our only chance to talk about last night phase and we are squandering it. I think we should be discussing possible outcomes of lynching Brant, try to get a step ahead of the mafia.

Should I retract my vote? I will vote Brant, no questions asked, but I want a consensus on this. We should be using the time we are allowed to discuss, I think. What about you guys?

Well, you know my opinion on that. I'd like more time before you lynch me. I think I'll probably be dead very soon though because people will take the opportunity to kill me to assure themselves another round and will want to look "in" with everyone else.

Plus a few people haven't talked this round and have barely said anything, so I'm curious how they'll react to this and what they'll do. It may help provide future information.

I am worried that at any moment Dragonldy is gonna show up and kill this round.

We don't have nearly as much information as we believe we do, trust me.

The safest way to make sure this round goes on to hear from more people and gather information is to just retract, lol. It'll probably give a little more time to talk. But not much. Idk.

I want to make some fun Photoshop images, but I don't want to waste my time if I get killed before I can post them. Booo.

I realize how this makes me look, but...

I retract my vote for Brant.

I just can't jump to that conclusion. I was incredibly certain as long as Tiffani did not target me, she would survive the night round.

Brant wrote:

Since I'm still alive, I'll add the following:Let's assume I die, which is obviously going to happen. I have no "quality" role to convince you to save me. Then Tiffani dies in the night. That means you'll be without a prostitute and down to final 8. Since 3 Mafia members are left, that means you need to get the next lynch right, or the Mafia will win at final 6 with 3/6 people if the Doctor can't save the next night's target. Good luck.

I'm hoping that the mafia just assumed the doctor WOULD indeed save me last night so tried to hit someone else and that the doctor also suspected this might happen and used his save on someone else and will be able to save me for realz lol *wishful thinking*

I'm also hoping that the mafia did not come up with this brilliant plan to not do a night kill and that either the doctor or I saved a person preventing a kill, after all, i never thought of the no night kill until Thian mentioned it, so now it's out there to be used as "proof" to dissuade us.

I think I might possibly know who the doctor is, i'm just guessing in my head, and to Jackie of course lol I won't say it here, but I kind of have a feeling about someone, although I'm not the greatest guesser in the world so I'm not holding my breath on that one lmao

When I die, I hope the doctor & vigilante can do some good, the vigilante can only kill the mafia now since the police are gone, so don't be afraid to pick anyone you suspect of anything.

Er, didn't the doctor just reveal himself and the fact that he protected you last night?

I have no problem taking more time to discuss this. I just know I seduced Brant last night and there was no kill, but I'm willing to hear from more people and discuss this thoroughly. I dont' want to start a lynch and be wrong, trust me, and my time will end in the next night i'm sure of it lol

Brant wrote:

Er, didn't the doctor just reveal himself and the fact that he protected you last night?

There was no page three when I first started lol
And I knew the doctor was sending me a hint last round, which is why I took them off my suspect list

Tiffani wrote:

Brant wrote:

Er, didn't the doctor just reveal himself and the fact that he protected you last night?

There was no page three when I first started lol
And I knew the doctor was sending me a hint last round, which is why I took them off my suspect list

Yeah, he hinted it then and then kinda revealed it on the end of page 1 today. So assuming he's telling the truth, we know that you WERE protected. It's just a question of whether or not the Mafia tried to kill you last night or if something else happened.

That sounds so high and mighty lol I KNEW................I didn't know, I THOUGHT lol I really hate trying to articulate my thoughts lmao I'm not as stupid as you might sometimes think, but three kids are slowly killing my brain cells i swear!!!

Also, since I don't think my vote for JK will get anywhere and I figure that the Mafia tried to kill Tiffani and the doctor protected her (since he admitted that he did protect Tiffani),

I retract my vote for JK.

I have to go pick up my kids, i'll be back, i have more thoughts, i'll try to get some out lol

I hope this sheds some light on what is going on in my mind: The fact that Tiffani survived the night meant little to me as far as evidence against Brant goes, I was incredibly certain she would survive. Maybe he is mafia, maybe he is not. The truth of that matter for me is, I learned nothing from that night round other than the fact that the mafia could/would not kill.

If they COULD not kill, that means they either targeted Tiffani, or they targeted somebody else and Tiffani has caught Brant red-handed.

If they WOULD not kill, it means they suspected that Tiffani was gonna be saved and wanted to let her do some incriminating, and I am betting that Tiffani's and my argument was going to end up incriminating me when she chose me and she ended up not dead.



I am inclined to believe that the mafia figured that Tiffani was going to be protected by the doctor, so they chose another target, making Tiffani's target true, so I really at this point see no reason to not lynch him, like I said. But that is going to happen anyways, with the townies outnumbering the mafia 7-2 right? (don't forget about the traitor) We can't pass up on this evidence, but like I said, we need to take our time as a town to talk about things while we can, and not dive into the night phases so haphazardly, where the mafia have the clear upper hand by being able to still discuss. We need to know where everybody stands as a town if we are going to be able to work in concert, so I say we lynch Brant, but only after we take a few deep breaths and gather our thoughts for how to handle the next night phase.

I hate just letting myself die, but if you guys want to do that, I'm obviously not going to be able to stop you. Look at different possible scenarios and try to prepare for them; I'll assist you as much as I can for the time I have left.

Here is another thought adding onto what you said. Tiffani can CLEAR someone from being a Mafia member if she disables someone's power and a night kill still occurs. So rather than let a 2nd player be cleared (she said she cleared someone the first night) and have less possible suspects left, it would have made more sense for the Mafia to generate confusion with a no kill and leave more possible suspects and only the person from the first night cleared. And rather than just not kill anyone, I think the Mafia probably would've tried to kill Tiffani in the rare chance that she wasn't protected. Because if they could get rid of the prostitute, it would eliminate a lot of possible problems for them down the road.

So I think the Mafia tried to kill Tiffani, hoping she wasn't protected, but expecting a no kill because the Doctor would try to protect her. But a no kill was the 2nd best outcome if their 1st (killing Tiffani) didn't work.

derBmoose wrote:

I hope this sheds some light on what is going on in my mind: The fact that Tiffani survived the night meant little to me as far as evidence against Brant goes, I was incredibly certain she would survive. Maybe he is mafia, maybe he is not. The truth of that matter for me is, I learned nothing from that night round other than the fact that the mafia could/would not kill.

If they COULD not kill, that means they either targeted Tiffani, or they targeted somebody else and Tiffani has caught Brant red-handed.

If they WOULD not kill, it means they suspected that Tiffani was gonna be saved and wanted to let her do some incriminating, and I am betting that Tiffani's and my argument was going to end up incriminating me when she chose me and she ended up not dead.



I am inclined to believe that the mafia figured that Tiffani was going to be protected by the doctor, so they chose another target, making Tiffani's target true, so I really at this point see no reason to not lynch him, like I said. But that is going to happen anyways, with the townies outnumbering the mafia 7-2 right? (don't forget about the traitor) We can't pass up on this evidence, but like I said, we need to take our time as a town to talk about things while we can, and not dive into the night phases so haphazardly, where the mafia have the clear upper hand by being able to still discuss. We need to know where everybody stands as a town if we are going to be able to work in concert, so I say we lynch Brant, but only after we take a few deep breaths and gather our thoughts for how to handle the next night phase.

I was certain I would survive as well, with or without the doctor's care, because the mafia had to know there was probably a 99% chance the doctor MIGHT save me.

I dont' know, I really don't know if I believe the mafia purposely chose not to kill anyone, until Thian mentioned it, would that have crossed anyone else's mind? I know everyone will say yes now that it's out there lmfao Maybe everyone else is just a brilliant theorist and I'm not lol

Tiffani:
If one person thought of it, it means that in a group, there are more people who thought of it too, either that or similar idea.

I am still re-reading Brant right now. I am comfortable where my vote is until I get through it.

But there were people who didn't think of it as well, and we dont' know which category the mafia members fall into lmfao

I hadn't thought of it either, and I found it rather interesting that it was brought up. But I don't think it is likely. If they were certain of you being saved, I don't think it would do them any good to sit on their hands, why would they hesitate to take out somebody else? It doesn't make sense to me that they would just not kill anyone when really it is what they should be doing. If I were mafia, this is how I would have seen it:

We shouldn't try and kill Tiffani as it will be a wasted effort thanks to the doctor. Since we don't want to waste our night efforts, let's kill somebody else, somebody like the doctor. There is animosity there we can take advantage of...


and then: Oops! Our majority was stopped cause one of us got horny. Didn't see that coming! How do we cover?

Lie and suggest that the mafia is up to something else or say nothing at all about any of it. People who fit this description are numerous right now, but the only people aside from Brant who has mentioned anything are Thian, Dogdude, and DragonTear. Our lurkers are -jk-, Deetster, DJ, and Dragonldy.

About the Traitor: I am concerned about this role, because I am not exactly sure how the role works now. Do the mafia know who the traitor is? Obviously the traitor knows who the mafia is, otherwise they would have a hard time functioning. I also wonder if the two 'real' mafia are lynched, do we still need to worry about this role to win? And since there are 2 mafia, would the player total need to be brought down to 6, 5 or 4?(6 in the case of traitor adds to mafia count, 5 in case that traitor counts as neither, or 4 in case traitor counts as town, which I think is the least likely)



Also, since we got you here, Brant, what do you think of each of the remaining players?
The same question goes to DragonTear, Dragonldy, -jk-, Deetster and DJ if they care to speak up.

I'll evaluate all the players shortly, but I just further elaborate on why I think the Mafia may have wanted to risk a no lynch. I think, honestly, it helps them more than anything. If they killed someone besides the prostitute, it would have hurt them.

Tiffani is basically clear now since no one's disputing her claim that she's the prostitute. She hasn't revealed who yet, but she cleared someone the 1st night. If there was a kill and she cleared someone the 2nd night, then 3 of the final 9 would be clear. That means the pool of remaining Mafia members would be small. Small enough that they were more likely to get lynched during the day and then there would be an even greater chance of her disabling someone in the Mafia in the night.

Out of every game, this prostitute role poses the biggest threat because it can clear Mafia, it can help locate Mafia, and it can prevent the Mafia from killing. I'd have to think that they're completely freaking out about it and doing what they can to minimize their chances of being hurt by that role. And trying to kill the prostitute or not doing a night kill are their two best ways of preventing themselves from being hurt by the role.

I wouldn't normally comment but to clarify roles, the traitor does count as a Mafia Member in that if the Mafia is taken out but the Traitor survives, the town would still need to take out the Traitor in order to ensure a win. Otherwise, the Mafia would win if it comes down to even numbers (the Traitor and/or Mafia Member(s) in even numbers to the town).

For example:

2 Mafia + 1 Traitor remain
3 townspeople remain
-------------------
= Mafia win


1 Mafia + 1 Traitor remain
2 townspeople remain
-------------------
= Mafia win


0 Mafia + 1 Traitor remain
1 townsperson remains
--------------------
= Mafia win


0 Mafia + 0 Traitor remain
Any townspeople remain
--------------------
= Town win


Mafia does not know who Traitor is and vice versa.

Traitor is disadvantaged because they cannot kill nor can they talk to Mafia but their survival is still important to a Mafia win.


Hope that makes sense.


Also, refer to the list of roles which is stickied in this board. (The above was not clarified in the list which is why I posted in answer to the question.) If you have questions regarding roles, please let me know by PM/IM, preferably.

As Jackie said, if you guys lynch me and find out I'm innocent, then Tiffani will almost definitely be killed in the night since the Doctor can't protect her this time. So you'll be at final 8 with 3 Mafia left and HAVE to get the next lynch right to survive or the next day could have 3/6 Mafia members.

There may be better ways around that if we think through this and figure out the best way for everyone to utilize their roles just to keep our valuable assets in the game the longest and look at different crazy scenarios.

Well then, who do you think is more suspicious? You have yet to speak of any other players.