Survivor : Cagayan

that was definitely an interesting episode. I figured early on that LJ was in trouble, was not surprised with the results. The issue here is that now there are 8 people and Jefra is gonna feel like she is on the outside. Tony's only chance is if Kass and Jefra stick with him now and that may be difficult. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next!

Talk about a misleading preview as I stated before as a possibility ..as opposed to Woo and Tony going at it they end up being the 2 votes that send LJ home. Lulz. I think my man Woo made a mistake last night, if only Tony had voted LJ then Woo is sitting in a better spot within the tribe. Went from a controlling 6(would have become 5) to being at the mercy of both sides almost OR the greatest asset to both sides.

Spence has impressed me as a player the way he has been dealt a difficult hand and still remains in the game(still with idol too). I wonder if their was a hint to the remaining special hidden idol at the reward that went unnoticed, I assume the camera may have panned over it at some point if there was.

One thing I will add though, Ive always felt if you want to play the middle to chip away at both alliances you need a partner in crime along the way in order to successfully dismantle both which Tony and Woo may have become. It was Tony's plan though and Woo unwittingly went along with it based on a lie. Eight left, So assuming we have 3 vs 3 with Woo/Tony as the swing anything could happen from here on out. Kass is a proven wild card so I'd easily look for her to shake things up next TC.

I wanna justify pulling for Woo still but he may have just messed up the best thing he had going for him if he did make FTC, his likability and trustworthiness. Hopefully the heat falls more on Tony than Woo for the LJ move, but even then it just makes Woo look like an unknowing pawn. Def looking forward to next ep cause there is gonna be some explaining/scrambling that has to be done.

Lastly, when they show Woo falling out of the tree in the preview I retract my "he has Ozzy blood" statement about Woo. Ozzy would never fall out of a tree like that   

Best season in a long long time.

agreed best season in a while.

I agree that Woo might have made a big mistake. I think that his best chance right now to win would be going F3 with Kass and Tony and I don't see any way that is possible. Woo and Tony are not going to make it unscathed after last nights vote, so one will fall as a result. While they could survive the next vote I still think they will lose and Woo being the physical threat puts him in even more danger than Tony. Though Tony's paranoia could hurt him more so we'll see how that pans out.

Im glad your opinion on it changed Pete, I remember the start you had your reservations.

I'm unsure just what the hell is actually going to happen, but last night's craziness benefitted the people I like more than the people I don't.  Woo clearly trusts Tony, but that isn't the smartest move.  I don't see Woo or Tony making it to the end of the game now, but I suppose time will tell.  Tony is playing the game, whereas it feels like Woo is just kind of letting the game take him along.  Woo is definitely more likeable, Tony's only likeable to me, in that he's absolutely crazy and unpredictable.  Makes it exciting to watch, but hardly guarantees the cop a victory.

We know where Spencer, Jeremiah, and Tasha (three people I might like the best) are.  Guess it'll depend on what Kass, Jefra, and Trish decide to do.

Crazy season, woooo!

No one's said anything in a week, but that's alright.  I had a GUT FEELING, last week was just going to be a small hiccup, and this season (while good, much like last season) might be good, in spite of the people who'll be making it to the end.  Jefra did exactly what "people" would expect a young, cute beauty pageant girl to do.  She played it safe.  With a F3, "playing it safe" has YET to win anyone the game.  That only works with a F2, history would indicate.  Where's Amanda Kimmel (one of my absolute favorites ever) when I need her?  At least she took a few chances, yaknow?  Jefra's screwed either way....so I wished she would've been screwed for the 'right' people, imo.  But, that ain't how its looking.


Guess time'll tell.  But my peeps days are beyond numbered.

I'm feeling the same way Henry. After last nights episode I could see Tony winning and truth be told if he does win I will absolutely loathe this season simply due to the fact that I hate him more than Russell at this point. I've never liked Russell but he was far more tolerable than Tony is.

I have a bad feeling Spencer is completely screwed next week and I hate that. He is the only one I like at all this season. I was starting to like Jefra and then she got chicken so she goes back to being a non-competitor to me.

The only people guaranteed to lose at this point based on this weeks episode: Woo, Jefra and Kass. The others are still somewhat still in the running but those 3 lost votes previously or this week. Regardless the only way one of them wins is if they are the final 3 and that won't happen based on the editing. Who knows though as this seasons editing has been very weird lol

Hey guys!

I haven't posted in here in forever, lol.

I am soooo sick of Tony. He was alright in the beginning, but he has become soo annoying and insufferable. I am nervous Tony will end up winning, based on the insane amount of screen time he's getting.. I REALLY hope not though.

I loved Sara and was so pissed when she went home. She was my fave! I liked Morgan, LJ and somewhat liked Jeremiah too, so obviously not loving this boot order. :(Hoping Spencer can pull something off and win. He's my second fave (fave out of who is left). He's awesome. I love his confessionals.. they're so priceless.

I cannot stand Kass. She is annoying and I just don't like her, especially cuz she betrayed her alliance that had my faves in it.

I like Trish. I am hoping she can wake up though and get rid of Tony.

Woo is alright but I'm not a big fan of him.

Tasha is cool. Wasn't a huge fan of her in the beginning cuz she wanted to keep J'Tia, but she's gotten much better.

Here is to hoping Spencer and Tash can pull Jefra and Trish over to vote out Tony/Woo.

Good to hear from you Niki.  I like Tasha, Spencer, and failing those two winning (which is highly unlikely, at this point) I guess I'd have to go for....ick.  Yeaaah.  I pretty much dislike everyone else left, including Trish.  If Tash & Spence are the next 2 gone, I won't care who wins.  Dislike Tony, dislike Trish....Kass, I keep WANTING to like, but she screwed my people over, and Jefra and Woo to me, while not entirely awful, they're not playing really.  So I guess Jefra & Woo are the least deserving of winning, with Trish close-behind.

i have actually really enjoyed this season so much, even with its flaws - the biggest being that stupid 'super idol' - you can't argue that it has made for must watch TV.

Despite the concerns about Even if he gets to the end, I seriously don't know if Tony will have the social game to get the win. The way it was edited last night it showed Tony being 'played' by Spencer, raising paranoia about an all woman's alliance. Can anyone remember a winner getting an edit like that where they are being played like that? Bob in Gabon is about the only one I can even think comes close to this, and even then it wasn't played up to the same degree that it was with Tony last night.

That said, if Tony had have just turned to the camera at any point and just said - you know what? If Spencer or Tash get to the end, one of them will win. The longer they are around the more heat and more of a target they are, keeping the target off of me. What better way of camoflaging a target than surrounding with even bigger targets? Get through this round, has his bag of tricks and suddenly his ticket is secure all the way to F4.

That way they could have explained the move as a 'smart' winner's move, rather than as a overplaying character that allows himself to be 'played'.

And this is not the first time either. Remember Sarah at the merge? Tony kept saying, 'I will win her over, I will win her over' and telling Trish not to bother approaching Kass. Tony was unable to convince Sarah, yet Trish was able to win Kass over.

Now F6. Spencer and Tash are massive targets. Tony has his bag of tricks, so he won't be going anywhere. Kass, who really isn't so much chaos as she is looking to ghost it to the end & IMO it will be Trish who will decide the outcome of this game.

If they target Woo next to try to undermine Tony, it may work but they are also risking letting Tash and Spencer a cakewalk to the end. But this also leaves the door open for Tony, now at F5 and 1 idol left into the F4. Also those 2 women would have to reconcile with a cut rattlesnake in Tony. And if I were Trish, I would be confident of being able to mount a better FTC case for winning the game than Woo could, so why look to cut Woo just to supposedly undrmine Tony, who has pissed people off, both still in the game and on the Jury? Better to cut the bigger threats, esp Tash after her 3rd straight immunity win. 

Of all the people on the beach the person I would most want to be in their position has to be Trish. No question. There is a very clear path that she could take to not only get to the end, but do so with the right numbers on the Jury who would vote for her over any of Woo, Kass or Tony. Not saying I have liked all the things that Trish has done in the game, especially pre-merge, but post-merge, she has been flawless socially. And who votes for the winner at the end? A Jury made up exclusively of people that made it to the merge - if you see where I am getting at here. Just depends on how she responds to being blindsided last night - if she can get over that hurt and see the bigger picture, that Jefra on the Jury is a probable vote for her, so long as Tasha or Spencer are not there at the end.

I really want Tony to go right now! I think if he were to win then I would absolutely hate this season and never wanna even think of this season again. Okay not really, it is a great season but I really just do not like him lol

I did like Jefra but I think she got what was coming to her when she refused to flip even though she said she wanted to.

I agree though GM, Tony is definitely losing but I think he'll be in the finals. The editing since the merge has really made him out to be less and less likeable. HOWEVER, I must stress that the editing this season has also been extremely misleading on everyone. Based on editing I feel very confident that Trish and Tony are gonna be in the finals, but who'll be the 3rd? (if there is a F3 btw, does anyone know for sure?).

Spencer and Tasha will have the hardest time making it to the finals. I think one could possibly pull it off but I feel like one of them is definitely going either this coming week or the final 5. Based on editing, I feel like Spencer does have a better chance but I still really doubt it'll happen. The editing has shown Spencer now multiple times save himself when it seemed like he was screwed, whether with an idol or just by the way he talked to people. This tells me that he'll make it further than Tasha whom I feel hasn't really hadn't much of an edit as far as how she has played or any specific moves she has made. With her winning 3 immunity challenges and not getting more of an edit tells me she is gone the minute she loses (which could be this coming week).

That leaves Woo and Kass. Neither is winning, out of the 6 they have the least chance of winning. Honestly I think Kass could have turned things around after she flipped but she just sat and let herself get ruled by emotions. Sarah, Morgan, Jeremiah, Tasha and Spencer won't vote for her. She wasn't apart of the LJ or Jefra votes which shows that she really wasn't a part of the in alliance.

Woo has proven with both the LJ and Jefra votes that he is Tony's puppet. What has he been shown to do all season other than that.

With these being the final 6 I really am interested to see how this game will end. I think Kass' best choice is to switch back with Tasha and Spencer and go after the other 3 and the previews show that she may do just that. I think it'll end up being a red herring and Tasha or Spencer go but hopefully not cause it would make things far more interesting.

Nice to hear from you GM.  Such a well-thought-out thought process of who is left and what can happen.  I agree with you and Pete, essentially. 


I don't know what'll happen, but Latasha gets points for kicking ass, absolutely, but she's got to know as soon as she loses immunity, she's gone.  Which makes me think...why didn't she go to Jefra, Trish, and Kass THIS WEEK and say, let's get an all-girls alliance going?  Honestly, I don't know if Trish (especially) would've been up for that, but I hope Tash tried.  Perhaps Tasha is a good social player, and a good physical player, but isn't that much of a strategic threat.  I love Tash, but she's got a HARD row to hoe.  Winning every single immunity from here 'till the end?  That's a steep order.


I dislike Tony, I dislike Trish, Woo is entertaining but I don't especially like him.  Kass, I keep trying to like for some reason, but eaah. 


What annoys me the most is this never-ending idol machine.  Having idols all over the place, and that SPECIAL idol, is so amazing it's downright unfair.  I know it won't happen, it's another reason for me to hate Probst, but ENOUGH with all these idols. -.-  I feel they change the game TOO much.  It isn't quite "Survivor" once you start doing that many idols, it becomes, lets find the idol.


If Tony makes it to the end, I could see him winning.  Especially if he's next to any combination of Trish, Woo, and Kass.  I dislike Tony, but at least he's playing the game.  I don't know if enough of the jury hate him.....so much so that they wouldn't vote for him to get the $$ simply cause, well, at least he played.

I was happy for Tony when he found the special idol and I was happy for him when he got the "advantage" to the other idol. I don't dislike Tony. In fact the more the season has gone on, the more he has grown on me. I like good players and he has definitely been playing the game. Can he win in the end? Depends on who he is up against. 

Woo, I like Woo. If I had a favorite player it would be him but aside from the "likable" factor, he hasn't done much this game as my mother pointed out to me tonight at dinner. Aside from that, his chances of winning are very slim. I think Kass could out talk him but she doesn't have any fan's on the jury really so, who knows. Trish, Woo could beat her possibly. 

Trish doesn't bother me but she is a spare.

Tash is an immunity freak and if I were out there the first chance I had to get rid of her, I'd be taking it, yes sir, I totally would. I personally don't like her, but I don't dislike her, she hasn't been "playing" the game as hard as say.... Kass. 

Kass annoys me. There is nothing I can find that I like about her. But I give her some props, she was willing to make moves, and that is more than some of the others have done. 

Who's left? Oh Yeah, Spencer. Am I the only one that doesn't like Spencer? Seems like I asked that very question to my pal in a text message yesterday. He bores me. I find him boring. 

Jefra, was a spare as well. Just saying. 

Thanks for reading my two cents. 

*crawls back under a rock*

Like him or not, Tony is compelling TV. He is making things happen & IDK if he can or will win but he is playing hard and you have to think he is loving every second of life in the game. And that I appreciate more - watching people that want to be out there, instead of so many quitters that we seem to have, at least 1 every season.

Further, if it gets down to it and Tony is voted out over the next couple of rounds and plays his super Idol, I think it will be all the more reason for the Jury not to vote for him to win. OK, yes, congrats - you found a super Idol, but the mark of a winner is to avoid being voted out in the first place, and I can't think of any that has ever been 'saved' when votes were heading thier way - maybe Sandra in HvV, but if memory serves, it was Jeri that had the votes when Parvati played her HII's.

I am glad that this season is not just turning into Samoa 2.0 especially in the editing though.

Tony IS growing on me, only because he's actually playing the game... but, I agree with Green, think the "special idol" would be unattractive to a jury, in my opinion. 

I do like Tasha, but I think the fact that she keeps winning those challenges might be holding her back strategically. 

Kass- ugh, I'm starting to dislike her more and more. She's capable of moves, but I think that her demise will be not making another move in the last few go-rounds. I'd rather her win over some others.

Trish- she still annoys me, and definitely doesn't deserve to win.

Spence- Don't mind him, he's incredibly average in my book. It's just nice to see a guy not trying to flirt or be seduced by all of the girls.

Woo- Meh. He's entertaining... I'm secretly kind of hoping that he can pull off a win. 

I'm with the majority that this isn't the greatest season ever, but better than some from the last few years

Ive said from the very beginning that Tony was getting the Hantz edit, so Im not at all surprised he is where he now in the position he is. He is a lock for f4 with the 2 idols, or do they both have to be used next tribal? Usually good up till f5 correct?

I know many think Woo doesnt have a chance, and he very likely may not make the end but Ill make a quick case for him IF he can(once I back someone from the beginning, I ride it out). I mentioned in an earlier post that if Tony played the middle to dismantle both alliances he would need a 2nd person, in this case Woo, and it has worked very well although I think not getting rid of Spencer last week was a mistake. So while the edit does show Woo as Tony's puppet there are some things to take into account and possible scenarios. Tony couldn't have successfully pulled all these moves without Woo. If nothing else, Woo HAS been willing to shake the game up alongside Tony. The two keys to a Woo win from here on out as I see it are this. One, Spence and Tash must be the next two out leaving a f4 of Trish,Woo,Tony, Kass. Woo then needs to go on to win the f4 immunity and have the balls and smarts to vote with the girls to oust Tony at 4, once he is no longer protected by idols. It will prove that the puppet had the last laugh on the puppetmaster on his way to making f3 with a jury filled with many who blame Kass for their downfall at the merge and Trish who has done nothing all game. Also, leaves him as the only player who has been on the successful side of how the end game was dictated post merge. I think Tony will be smart enough to use his idols in a way to make sure Tash/Spence are the next two to go provided someone steps up and derails the Tasha immunity train(ideally Woo). It's final 6, and I can think back to numerous seasons where the winner comes from someone you would never have guessed at f6. LOTS of game left to be played, don't count Woo out just yet. Make f3 with Kass and Trish and go on to say how he used his meatshield Tony to get to the end, then cut him loose at the very end. Also, wouldn't hurt for him to go on a mini immunity run that I would expect from a martial arts instructor.

One last note, if Woo and Tony are both in f3 then I think Woo still has an argument to win. While he and Tony were shaking the game up, there was one BIG difference between the two. One was taking chances/shaking the game up without a safety net and one was with a safety net(special idol). If Tony is forced to use his special idol, it may very well hurt him in F3. I don't think Tony is very well liked by the jury even though they may respect his game. In this scenario, could very well be that the right hand man/woman wins again(Nat over Hantz).

That's just my take on the potential for a Woo win.

I honestly think the fact that Tony and Woo would not be where they are if Trish hadn't convinced Kass to switch puts her in a better position to win than either Tony and Woo. They have specifically shown Trish strategizing on her own while I don't recall a single scene of Woo doing the same. The only person I have ever seen him strategize with is Tony. Based on that edit he reminds me of Mick while Trish is Natalie to Tony's Hantz. I just honestly think that Woo has the second least chance of winning behind Kass. Only way he wins is against Kass in a F2.

If you think about Samoa, at the merge Natalie convinced people to turn on Erik and that allowed Hantz the in he needed to turn things around in his favor, plus she was a lot more likeable than he was. I feel like the same could be said about Trish compared to Tony. Then you have Woo. Mitch was only ever shown strategizing with Hantz, if I'm remembering correctly, and NO ONE respected his gameplay. Kass is easily this seasons Shambo, betrayed her alliance due to emotions and then stopped playing the game.

Granted, I can do all this comparing with Samoa but I'd be shocked if the end game played out differently. Tony is not winning over Trish, I think. Though after this past weeks episode I really feel like Spencer has a strong chance of winning the game.

I unfortunately will be missing this coming weeks episode so hopefully Spencer doesn't go cause I'll be annoyed if he does lol

Interesting analogy that you have made here, Pete, re Trish = Natalie to Tony's Russell. 

This is not the only such example of the way Survivor has edited a female winner behind a far more prominant male that ultimately crashes their own game. Think Sophie to Coach in SP or Amber to Rob in AS. So long as Tasha & Spencer can be eliminated before the FTC, then I don't see any of the others, including Tony, being able to beat her.

Green Monster wrote:

Interesting analogy that you have made here, Pete, re Trish = Natalie to Tony's Russell. 

This is not the only such example of the way Survivor has edited a female winner behind a far more prominant male that ultimately crashes their own game. Think Sophie to Coach in SP or Amber to Rob in AS. So long as Tasha & Spencer can be eliminated before the FTC, then I don't see any of the others, including Tony, being able to beat her.

That is my point exactly. Russell and Natalie are definitely not the first time that story edit has been used but it is the most prominent. The difference between Amber and Rob to them is the fact that when was Amber ever shown to actually change the outcome of the game? She almost got voted out but didn't due to Rob talking to Lex.

Regardless, I agree if either Tasha or Spencer are in the finals they win. If Trish makes it and neither does then she wins. Kass, Woo and Tony are not winning unless they are against one another

I'm thinking Kass has NO chance of winning almost entirely.  Perhaps if she's against......nah, I almost cannot think of a way Kass can win.  Perhaps against Trish and Woo, but I could see either of them winning over Kass.

I think Tony'd beat Kass, Woo, or Trish....so all he's gotta do is get rid of Spencer and Tasha.

I think Tasha has the BEST chance of winning, if she was in there with Spencer, she'd beat him.  Spencer would win only if Tasha is gone, and he's in the finals against any collection of the others.

Spencer needs to win somehow!!

I'm sick of Tony, but can admit he's playing a good game!

I like Trish but wish she'd leave Tony!

I can't stand Kass. She's my least fave. That woman is vile.

Woo has grown on me a little. He was funny at the reward challenge.

Trish won't leave Tony - she knows he can beat him at the end. Smart.

Kass is out to lunch, but it was absolutely the right thing to do, to vote out Tasha. If Tasha had've survived and gets to the end, she wins, no question and going into the F5 with both Tasha and Spencer in the game is suicide if any of the others want to stand a chance of winning. Not only that but going into the F5, if Kass and Woo do actually have designs to work with Spencer they can still do that (if they think that a a good move - and if they do they really need their heads read).

The next round is F5, so i think this must be just about the last time the Idols can be played. It usually is. Then again, who knows with that stupid super Idol... It was good to F4 when Yul & Terry had it in their seasons. Anyhow, Tony will be safe, he will play the HII on whoever he wants to - either Woo or Trish... you would think Trish after that scene with Woo when he got back from the reward.

Trish is smart. Who are the 2 people that she really has rubbed the wrong way? Lindsay, who quit pre-merge, but people will remember that feud. And now Kass, who noone likes. But being overt about that, people seeing that Trish has ruffled feathers along the way could make the otheres WANT to take her to the end, in the misguided belief that she is generally unliked, when it is just 2 people - 1 of whom is not on the Jury so can't vote anyhow. Her social game has been much better than the rest of the competition left int he game, with the exception of Woo, she has some runs on the board in terms of strategic plays, she has friends on the Jury that she was not responsible for voting out, so doesn't have their blood on her hands that Tony has.

Oh, yeah, and Tony will take her, thinking he can beat her, but this has all the hallmarks of a season where a female winner is being portrayed as being able to work with and behind a more prominant male player, who will draw the bullets, and if they get to the end will have pissed off too many people off, that they cannot win. 

The only threat to Trish winning if she makes the FTC is Spencer.

Is Wednesday not the finale? The last few years they've done the finale at the F5...

If Tony wins, I'll graciously accept that. It's not like anyone else has tried as hard strategically. I still see Woo winning as the likable, non-douchebag player though. I would hope that Kass can win over Tony or Woo, but I think that if she's at the end, a jury with Trish would bust any chance of her winning. 

Honestly, I'm cool with anyone winning besides Trish. I can't stand that bitch.

Yeah it's on a Wednesday this season; Im right there with you Trevor.  I kinda said it before.  Of who is left.....I like Spencer, then I guess Kass, then Woo, then Tony....I mean I don't like Tony, but as I said, at least he's PLAYING.  And Trish, while I don't believe Trish is the worst player out there, I just dislike her a lot.

I love Spencer, Trish is alright, Woo is alright, and I can't stand Tony and Kass.