Day 4 - Werewolf 8 - Another Quiet Night

When Deetster first said the Seer should reveal I was thinking they shouldn't because they would just be the next night target of the wolves. Same with when derB said it. But, some of what derB says makes sense to me. IF the Seer has found a wolf then I think the fact that they would be killed in the night is outweighed by the fact that we would get a wolf. Otherwise, there is a good chance we will lose. But, if the Seer hasn't found a wolf, I think they should keep quiet so they have another chance to find one. Like Kenya said, they can't clear anyone.

I wholly realize where you are coming from, Kenya and Jackie. I am just a little paranoid over last game and kinda entering panic mode, I guess, lol. I think the main thing I was getting at was, if we are going to push any kind of lynch, I would feel much more comfortable going into it with as much info as possible, and to not officially clear the people Red chose, it would just narrow the list down a tad, and make it easier to at least nab a wolf.

I have read your post a few times DerB, and I'm getting the feeling it is regarding color that people are voting in if I'm not mistaken? I thought it was some kind of terror alert thing...idk, but somehow I don't think it's very important.

To answer you question most honestly Tiffani...something about the way Mandie was playing, made me want to vote her out more than other people. It just didn't seem extremely helpful, and honestly, it seemed likely she could be a wolf, or she was just a villager behaving in a particular way.

Something about how she was acting was very....i don't know if stubborn would be the word...or like...shocked the WE would decide to vote HER of all people, idk how to explain it, lol, but it just came off then as someone who was trying to be overtly defensive...something about it was such a strange behavior, and deep down I didn't feel comfortable about it, and the vote, but its hard to ever really feel okay about it when you aren't positive, and I never am. (Unless I am the seer and see something or something, but that wasn't the case).

Personally, if I saw it gain the momentum it did, and Mandie basically offering herself in more blatant frustration and "let's just get me out of here cause you guys are stupid", I may have just gone ahead and retracted to slow the round from ending like that...but idk, I think it may just have been an inevitable end to that round given its start.

Here is an important question

Now then. With what DerB and Kenya have both attested to, and what my current grasp is on the games situation...IF the sick person is a villager...right now we have a 36% chance of killing a wolf. That is what we NEED to have happen, and while the sick person being killed is acceptable I'm not including that right now because WE CONTROL THAT.

B. There is only a 1/6 chance should we not have lynched correctly that the wolves will kill the sick relative. Either way we won't have that person later.

Now, SHOULD we kill the sick relative, a wolf kills one of us, we go into the next round with 4 wolves, and 5 of us. At THAT point, we have a 4/9 chance of killing a wolf. At that point we have a 44% chance of killing a wolf. That is a good bit higher than our chance of killing a wolf this round, and we also bypass the chance of killing off an important role THIS round (though the wolves could end up killing one of them as well).

Now then...my question from all of that, is is there a BENEFIT from those numbers to killing off our sick person? Realize, if I'm grasping this correctly, killing an innocent villager could end our game today I believe, so is there a benefit to taking that route? Is it safer or riskier? Let me know your thoughts on that. If I'm piecing everything together right, then we should ultimately be in control of making that chance, and if at the least the sick individual is convinced it is the right move to make for the village.

LOL Deet, terror alert??

Killing the sick person would indeed guarantee us another day, but essentially will give us less info, as it will be agreed on by even a portion of the villagers, leaving the wolves to participate at will, and not have to TRY to lynch an innocent. They will just be 'allowed' to.

Also, it hands them the night phase kill reins again.

Considering this, I don't think it would be a good idea for the sick relative to out themselves no matter what happens. They should let themselves get lynched instead of halting the town and making them second guess, especially if the round is almost over, as it tends to be when we approach our lynches.


The color thing I was getting at, Deet, was that it is possible the evil roles that are not wolves may have attempted to signal somehow, although how we would discern this I am uncertain. Just an observation and possibility that I felt should be shared, in case somebody has that kind of code-cracking skill.

I don't think we should purposely try to lynch the sick relative. I mean I see what you are saying about how it can benefit us. BUT it would benefit us even more if we actually get an evil role.

Now here is something I've been thinking about.. I'm just unsure of whether or not it's something that should be done this round or not.. if we pick the wrong person to lynch this round.. will that just about make the game over? Should we do this this round or next round type of thing.

There are 4 evil roles correct? Then there are 3 just villagers left and then the remaining 4 players are pretty much villagers as well but with some kind of role.. although sick relative isn't a very helpful role at this point since they die after today is over. But if there is only 3 villagers.. then that means everyone else has some sort of title.. if we were to reveal our roles.. the evil side would try to jump on saying they are a villager.. because it would be dumb for them to try to say they are one of the other roles.. knowing that role would be like excuse me you are lying type of thing and vote for them right away.. there for we'd most likely have 7 people claiming to be villagers.. which gives us a much higher chance in getting an evil role. Is that too risky to do at this point??? I'm just wondering what the other villagers think about this. I personally think it would give us an upperhand and narrow down our search a bit but I do realize the risk in that because of the fact that if we don't hit an evil role.. then we will lose the seer for sure.

I'm just throwing out thoughts I've been having to see if any of them are any use to us.

Deadline for Day 4 06 June 2011 23:59EDT


Majority to lynch 6

Votes:
Kyle: 1 of 6: Jackie


Pending Votes: 10
Virtuanno, derB, deetster, Tiffani, Staciekins, Boyd, Kyle, Kenya, Cam, Santos

I actually think in a way that could be a good idea. Essentially though, if it were fully executed we would NEED a lynch, because the sick person would therefore not be killed during the night, guarenteeing it is indeed an innocent that gets killed...probably the seer.

I think it is something we should only do if the seer knows who the wolf is and is willing to do that.

Is there some rule though against saying your role specifically? I forget as a side note, but I feel like something was said in relation to this as some point in some game, but I may be mistaken. I mean...I basically did something to reveal what I was that game without actually saying it. "I KNOW THAT THIS PERSON SHOULD BE LYNCHED, AND AM WILLING TO SAY YOU CAN KILL ME NEXT ROUND IF IM WRONG". I mean, I guess without even saying things...people could do stuff anyway. *Flexes enormous muscles*, *coughs*, *sees*. I guess that last one would be pretty damn obvious, lol, but you get what I'm saying.

Well considering we all always say HEY I'm a villager.. obviously some of us actually are.. so really what is the difference? I think what isn't allowed is actually making proof like a screen shot or something.

Okay then, I guess that would check out then.

Still though, I think we should take the lead of the seer. If they haven't gotten anything for us to play with by this point, that's no good. However, even saying "TRUST THIS" is huge at this phase of the game if that can be offered with definity by somebody in the game.

This however, seer wherever you are, is if we agree this is actually a smart thing for you to do...don't jump the gun, lol. Though if you happen to act and do it cause you think it is logical, then I think Kenya's plan should be fully executed.

Double and triple reading everything this round, it just seems like Tiffani is making quite a few statements that are coming off as strange, and somewhat contradictory, I am most inclined to vote for her, and honestly would like to.

HOWEVER.

Knowing how quickly and suddenly a lynch can occur in this group really makes me not want to, as I will be going out tonight, and probably won't be back on until tomorrow afternoon, at the very earliest. Likely later in the evening, though. With how close we are to losing, I would rather not place a vote knowing I would not readily be able to change it for a whole day at least. I just felt it would be a good idea to at least state my concern over the matter, but I implore everybody to NOT jump to conclusions or make rash, hurried, hive mind decisions.

Oh yea, that post was supposed to be my way of saying "I'm out" for the night.

Ah yes, and on the mass role reveal, the evil roles can still lie about it and claim a special role, placing a "them or me" ultimatum on the cast, possibly with the full support of the whole evil team to back them up. If they happen to be somebody the group generally trusts more, this could be devastating if they convince merely two people.

I would advise against it, but would be willing to try as a last ditch effort.

It's true that the evil roles could go ahead and claim other roles themselves but they would also have to be able to explain fully what they have done so far.. for example if they said they were the seer they would have to say who they checked and why and all that good stuff.

We would also see a lot of panic from the evil roles.. at least in my opinion why would they want the odds of getting one of them better than it is right now? I think if I were an evil role and this plan was being talked about I'd be freaking out about now. Plus I think it would generate a lot of voting in different directions which could reveal things but at the same time I guess it could give us nothing as well. It all depends on how smart these evil roles are.. not to mention.. which I must repeat again... all the evil roles don't know who all each other are.. the sorcerer doesn't know who any of the other evil roles are.. nor do they know who they are.. the wolves only know of each other and the enchanter knows of the wolves.. therefore it would be hard for them to back each other up as much.

I just got home from the hospital with my daughter (fractured toe that we thought was broken) i have an 8am appointment and then i'll be back to read and talk

Players' Votes and Posts (click on player name to access posts):

Boyd

Votes Day 1:
Jackie
Deetster
Termy

Votes Day 2:
Dragonbunny
Boyd
Dragonbunny


Votes Day 3:
Mandie

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Cam

Votes Day 1:
Termy

Votes Day 2:
Dragonbunny

Votes Day 3:
None

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Deetster

Votes Day 1:
Termy

Votes Day 2:
Virtuanno
Stacie
Dragonbunny
Kenya
Stacie

Votes Day 3:
Mandie

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

derB

Votes Day 1:
Stacie
Deetster
Stacie

Votes Day 2:
Brant
Dragonldy

Mandie

Votes Day 3:
Mandie

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Jackie

Votes Day 1:
Boyd
Deetster
Stacie
Termy

Votes Day 2:
Brant
Stacie
Dragonldy

Mandie
Stacie
Dragonbunny
Kyle

Votes Day 3:
Mandie

Votes Day 4:
Kyle

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Kenya

Votes Day 1:
Dragonldy


Votes Day 2:
Boyd
Virtuanno
Dragonldy

Santos
Cam
Stacie
Kyle

Votes Day 3:
Kyle

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Kyle

Votes Day 1:
None

Votes Day 2:
Dragonldy
Kenya
Dragonbunny

Votes Day 3:
Kenya

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Santos

Votes Day 1:
Deetster

Votes Day 2:
Dragonbunny
Stacie

Votes Day 3:
None

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stacie

Votes Day 1:
Cam
Deetster
Termy

Votes Day 2:
Stacie
Dragonbunny
Dragonldy

Dragonbunny
Boyd
Kyle

Votes Day 3:
Mandie

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tiffani

Votes Day 1:
Termy

Votes Day 2:
Boyd
Kenya

Dragonbunny
Dragonldy

Stacie
Kyle

Votes Day 3:
None

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Virtuanno

Votes Day 1:

Votes Day 2:
Dragonbunny

Votes Day 3:
Deetste
Kenya
Mandie


[I've included in this post a link to each players' posts as well as their votes throughout the game. Feel free to correct me if any are wrong. For votes, I haven't yet separated them all between Day2a and Day2b but they are in order so I plan to come back and do that later.]

Santos, I have nothing to hide. I voted for Amanda because I did feel she was guilty. The more and more I read peoples reasoning for why they thought she was guilty, I started to believe it. I am also a bandwaggoner. I have always been. I don't try to hide it.

However, in this case, I am going to make my vote early. I agree that Virt is very suspicious, and I probably should've voted for him early when Amanda suspected him, but I didn't. I think it's odd that he was online but didn't post.

I am voting to lynch Virtuanno.

I was actually thinking what you were DerB, and didn't want to say it just in case the evil roles didn't think to do that, and did something more sloppy.

What we do know though is that if two people are claiming the same role, it a positive if is that person, OR that person, and that would increase our chances of being right. If people all pile on top of claiming a role where there are too many people claiming to be it, it would only increase our chances of selecting a wolf out of the liars.

Furthermore, like Kenya says, when pressed to explain their actions, that's when squirming would really begin, and I think it'd put the wolves in a position it's about damn time they feel in.

For me, it boils down to which side it benefits most. It helps the villagers narrow it down for lynching but there is room for error. It would help the wolves by making their night kills pretty much error-free unless all good roles are double-claimed.

Also, does the village automatically lose if it comes down to 4 good and 4 evil roles? Since the wolves could still kill an evil role at night, I'm not sure if it does. If there was a mass reveal then they would definitely know who to kill.

Thian, can you please answer this?

Lol, some people really get stressed if you check the board and dont post. Sorry, i was checking it earlier from my phone which I dont post from. Rereading over everything now, ill post again in a bit.

Please for the love of God don't kill me or we lose the game.

Kenya, the reason I stopped in this morning was because I knew the game would be starting up, but I had nothing to say when I logged in. I wanted to vote for you, but I just want to suggest we don't run into this one or the bad guys win.

Virt why did ya wanna vote for me? If I was evil why would I even start to suggest a plan to narrow the evil roles down? But anyway I can say the same thing as you. Lynching me will only help the wolves win not the other way around.

Personally, I mapped out a really nice reason why Kenya should be lynched not long ago, and since then every single thing she has said has erased my wild pattern theory. Personally, it surprises me based on certain things she brings up that people would suspect her. The same went for Brant in earlier rounds.

Kenya wrote:

If I was evil why would I even start to suggest a plan to narrow the evil roles down?

Yes.

So, we are really up against it now. I was reading about the Doppelganger role more, and we may have already killed a baddie for all we know. If the doppelganger selected that person then there is no role reveal for who we killed as the Doppelganger just moves into the role.

I really thought I had a plan a few rounds ago, now Im not so sure. Im gonna keep going over ways in my mind the good guys can win this with the roles we know are still alive in the game. Still a lot of scenarios that can play out and it does take a little time to wrap my brain around them all. For instance...

If we accidentally lynch the hunter and he/she then kills a good guy followed by a night kill are we then done for?